Realistic Defense

The probability of spending cuts now...

2011-03-29T19:05:00.000-07:00

That is to say, not very likely.

With the military operation in Libya in full swing, and a clear end game not in sight, defense spending is being taken off the list of potential budget cuts. The Politico article does a good job of giving some general opinions across the spectrum, and two quotes stood out to me.

Josh Holly, communications director for the Armed Services Committee, is worried about "not being properly positioned to deal with the contingencies that might be on the horizon, whether that be a modernizing military in China or (a military action) in Libya."

The Pentagon is already spending close to $700bn a year, and even halving that figure would allow to the military to 'deal with the contingencies that might be on the horizon.' The right amount of spending depends on what you want to do. A policy of global intervention and treating the Pentagon as a giant jobs program does require a giant budget, but if people realize that fiscal apocalypse is a realistic possibility absent serious consideration being given to defense cuts, then some headway can be made in reducing spending. It's about making serious and rational choices.

We're also treated to the China bogeyman. Given the importance of naval power in the coming decades, the number of carrier strike groups is a good indicator for worldwide military might. The United States maintains 11 of these groups, China is working on its first. The possibility of a security dilemma with China is somewhat a reality, but we don't need to start planning for WWIII just yet considering the huge advantage we already possess.

The next quote is from Sen. Joe Lieberman in his typical hawkish fashion: "Congress should be very careful and cautious about any reductions in defense spending, given the many profound responsibilities shouldered by our military at this time"

The military is shouldering many profound responsibilities at this time, and it's strictly by choice, not necessity. We can't pretend that this mission in Libya is necessary for national security, just as we can't pretend that winning 'the hearts and minds' in Afghanistan is a realistic conclusion. Defense hawks like Lieberman believe in a false dichotomy. Either we garrison the world, intervening wherever we please, and have an unsustainable defense budget, or we completely disengage and become an isolationist nation. Reducing our force commitments and rethinking our global posture while still talking and trading with other nations is the sensible position, and unfortunately it's a position that seems on the fringe in the Beltway.

Costs of the Libyan Conflict

2011-03-26T15:10:00.000-07:00

Some sobering reporting on the costs of the Libyan conflict at the National Journal.

In a time when every financial decision should be heavily scrutinized and examined, it's going to be interesting to see how long this level of spending is maintained and if Congress decides to take any action. Do we realize that these levels of military spending are unsustainable and damaging to the economy?

A Note on Libya

2011-03-25T08:25:00.000-07:00

I haven't updated this blog in forever, but in light of recent events I felt compelled to start it back up again. I'm going to try and update it a few times a week now, or whenever something happens that's worth discussing.

I just wanted to make a brief observation on some discussions in the mainstream media about the attack on Libya and Congressional war powers in general. Article 1, Section 8 of the Constitution explicitly authorizes the Congress (and Congress alone) to declare war, otherwise known as the 'War Power Clause.' Since the Korean War, instead of giving a formal declaration, Congress has given various 'authorizations' to the President to do as he sees fit.

The problem here is I think this is a distraction. While no doubt the hypocrisy of Obama declaring an unconstitutional war should be pointed out, the mere discussion of whether or not the United States should get involved is disheartening. Had there been an actual Congressional vote, I have no doubts that a declaration would pass despite the fact the country is already involved in two wars and on the brink of fiscal apocalypse. The desire for intervention is completely ingrained in both major parties. A complete rethink of our foreign policy is necessary, but unlikely to occur anytime soon.

Hasn't the United States learned by now that it is incredibly difficult to remake countries and turn them into liberal democracies? Iraq and Afghanistan are the obvious disasters, but even go back to the 1990's and the interventions in places like Bosnia and Kosovo. Nowadays, one is hanging on by a thread (Bosnia), and other is essential a narco-terrorist state (Kosovo). An important study released showed that in US interventions since WWII, only 3% made a transition to a viable democracy within 10 years. And yet the US still walks into the same traps...

A Resurgent Russia?

2009-08-05T18:16:00.000-07:00

The New York Times has recently reported Russian Akula-class submarines coming dangerously close to US territorial waters, supposedly operating 200 miles off the coast. The Akula-class is a tactical, attack submarine that does not carry ICBMs, but this is very provocative behavior to say the least.

It's been well known that Russia wants to portray itself as a major player in the international scene, but I've always thought that the extent of the Russian threat really only extended to its old stomping grounds in the former Soviet Union. Whether you are talking about the on again off again gas wars with Ukraine, cyberwarfare with Estonia, or an armed conflict with Georgia, Russia seemed to be the dominant actor in their region. But these latest actions represent a change in policy. With all the talk of pushing the "reset button" and what appeared to be a productive visit between Obama and Medvedev last month, these actions seem very strange. Of course, it could be much ado about nothing, but it's still worth keeping an eye on.

These actions, combined with the failed test of the Bulava SLBM, prove that the Russian military is drastically searching for relevance in an ever-changing 21st Century battlefield. With their economy crippled due to the low price of oil, Russia will have no choice but to scale back their military, much against Medvedev and Putin's wishes. Russia learned this lesson the hard way back in the 80's, and they will not willingly repeat the same mistakes. In the next few years, Russia will have to look for ways to achieve military advantages in the face of regressing defense budgets. How they balance that equilibrium will help to determine the security environment of the former Soviet Union as well as give us insight as to how well US-Russian relations will be in the Obama administration.

A Middle Eastern Defense Umbrella

2009-07-27T18:22:00.000-07:00

Sec. of State Hillary Clinton said that the United States would consider setting up a "defense umbrella" in the Middle East to thwart any potential attack emanating from Iran. The supposition is that the Obama administration needs to prove to Iran that it has the willingness to respond militarily. It seems that all the recent turmoil in Iran has somewhat shifted policy towards Iran.

Extended deterrence is an idea that has been a part of US strategy for decades dating back to the Cold War. The US continues to provide a nuclear umbrella to Japan and South Korea, and under NATO protocol in western Europe. But would this be a wise idea in the Middle East? Is a nuclear umbrella even needed?

The threat from Iran has, predictably, been overstated by many in the foreign policy establishment. A nuclear Iran would be balanced by Israel, whose military and economy are far superior to anything Tehran has to offer. Additionally, countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all hostile to the rise of Iran, so why does the United States need to set up a nuclear umbrella? All of those countries mentioned have far greater interests in Iran than the US does. Deterrence works. Why are we to think that deterrence in the Middle East will be any different than it was between the US and Russia, India and Pakistan, and elsewhere?

The desire of Iran to acquire WMD was completely predictable. The Israeli military historian Martin Van Creveld wrote that after the US invasion of Iraq, Iran would be foolish not to pursue a nuclear weapons program. Not only are there US troops in Iraq, but there are bases scattered throughout Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and other places in the region. Iran can be contained without an official "defense umbrella" being created.

Biden Supports Georgia in NATO

2009-07-23T10:05:00.000-07:00

In a visit to Georgia, VP Joe Biden gave a speech at the parliament in Tblisi where he reiterated US support for Georgia joining NATO. The US has long supported NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, and the issue became even more of a hot topic issue after the events of last summer. After the South Ossetian War, it puzzles me as to why this is even still being considered as a wise strategic move.

What value do Georgia and Ukraine give to the United States? I suppose there is the argument that having NATO on Russia's doorstep will ensure Russian oil gets pumped uninterrupted into Europe, but this is a weak reason to rush these countries into a security alliance. In the case of Ukraine, most of the country do not even wish to join the alliance, so we should not force a security agreement on the country if they do not want it.

Now on to Georgia. I think it's a very persuasive argument that Georgia is exactly the kind of ally the United States should try to avoid. We already know that the country's leadership is willing to act in an irrational manner, as indicated by the attempt to recapture Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And if Saakashvili were to do something rash again and provoke another conflict with Russia, should the United States openly risk war with a large (and admittedly) weakened giant? The sane answer would be no, and I think the American people would be very hesitant to go to war in a place where our security interests are weaker than they were in Iraq.

The future of NATO should be very subdued; we've seen it come under criticism for being ineffectual in Afghanistan, so I think very serious questions need to be asked with regards to its future as an organization. Do we need an organization to check Russian power in Europe? Not anymore, that need died with the Berlin Wall. The United States would undoubtedly be safer if it pulled back from NATO, and there was no longer an obligation to rush into war to protect non existent strategic interests.

Good News on the F-22

2009-07-21T10:14:00.000-07:00

Today the Senate finally voted on the Defense Authorization Bill amendment which would eliminate the $1.75 bn set aside for more F-22s. In a 58-40 vote, the Senate made the sensible decision to halt production on the F-22 after intense lobbying from President Obama, Sec. Gates, and Vice President Biden. Ever since campaign season, both Obama and McCain have been fairly consistent in challenging the defense establishment over unnecessary programs, but this is a victory in a small battle in the midst of a much larger war.

Still too many expensive and unnecessary weapons programs remain. And the ones that are being looked at for the future (Joint Strike Fighter), are not necessarily the best equipment financially and strategically. The entrenched special interests still have significant clout when it comes to the defense budget, and we saw this in action over the fight for the F-22. Laws like the Levin-McCain Act are a good first step, but I'm not quite convinced they go far enough.

Until the iron triangle of Congress, defense contractors, and the Pentagon focuses on making the necessary difficult choices that every other branch of government has to make, the same problems will likely persist. We will continue to hear the same arguments that these weapons programs are integral to securing our nation, and thousands of jobs are going to be lost. It's the nature of the beast.

Boosting the Army & Counterinsurgency

2009-07-20T14:36:00.000-07:00

Today, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced plans to boost the size of the US Army by up to 22,000 troops. The goal of doing this is to ease the strain on troops who face constant deployment rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan. It seems sensible to do this, as we've asked alot out of our troops, but I'm wondering whether there are alternative motives in doing this?

If we want to continue to garrison the world, then you're going to have to boost the army. We've been told over and over again that successful counterinsurgency requires massive levels of manpower, but I think the more convincing argument is that coordinated intelligence and police efforts are better ways at handling and stopping terrorism. The presence of thousands of troops in a place like Afghanistan is only likely to increase resentment against us. We don't understand Afghanistan, much like we didn't understand Iraq, so it's rather pointless I think to try and simultaneously bring democracy and human rights while stamping out the Taliban and al-Qaeda. It's a fruitless endeavor, and we're likely to spend more blood and treasure trying to achieve the unachievable.

I've got no problem with trying to help out the troops, but the best way to do that is to not send them into places where we don't need to be. We don't need the massive size of the US Army in Afghanistan, we need cooperation from Afghan security forces and we need to give the people a reason to turn their backs on extremism. We could easily reduce the size of the Army by 50% or more if we adopted a more sensible approach to combating terrorism and did away with most of our Cold War era security commitments.

F-22 Update

2009-07-16T14:18:00.000-07:00

It seems the debate for the F-22 is reemerging in Congress this week. A vote to strip funding for additional fighters was postponed by the SASC. It still strikes me as odd that this is still even an issue, considering all of the supposedly influential people that are against it.

I'm rather pessimistic about this issue, I think the specialized interests in Congress will be enough to put this funding through, and we will be left with planes that we don't need. As I've mentioned before, the high cost of the F-22 results in less training time for the pilots, something that you do not hear people like Saxby Chambliss mention. Air-superiority will certainly be key to future conventional conflicts, but can we really assume that it will be necessary in conflicts against terrorist groups and other sub-state actors? Fourth generation fighters should be sufficient in the conflicts we are likely to face in the next 10-15 years, and if more F-35s are procured (and I'm not saying it is the answer), then that should be enough to maintain aerial dominance for the foreseeable future while looking for an alternative fighter.

Trouble In Iraq?

2009-07-10T16:07:00.000-07:00

Today was the deadliest single day in Iraq since US forces withdrew from major cities. A double suicide bombing in northern Iraq killed 34, while there were also attacks both Sunni and Shi'a parts of Baghdad. Can we expect a prolonged campaign of violence?

Even though US forces withdrew from cities, I think it was naive to assume that everything would be rosy and peaceful in Iraq. Yes, the Iraqi people celebrated the withdrawal, but there was always going to be a de-stabilizing factor- the various insurgent groups. That being said, I think the United States made the right decision to leave. These various insurgent groups will fail to mobilize enough support for the long haul. If a mutual understanding between the Kurds, Sunnis, and Shi'a can be reached (and it doesn't have to be anything monumental or groundbreaking), then insurgents will lose the will to fight. If the al-Maliki government remains stable, then I think the pieces will fall into place.

Also, I think it was a mistake to disband the regional security arrangements utilized famously in Anbar province. These groups can act as sufficient checks against the government's security forces, where there is already suspicion that they may have been penetrated by insurgents.

It's important to let the Iraqi government and military work out the kinks and for the US military not to recommit, no matter how bad the violence gets. I have the feeling violence will perhaps intensify for the next few weeks, but will gradually die down.

Cyberwarfare

2009-07-08T15:22:00.000-07:00

Reports emerged today that over the weekend computers in North Korea initiated denial of service attacks against targets in South Korea and the United States. For better or worse, these kinds of attacks will probably raise many questions about cyberwarfare in the weeks and months ahead. Should cyberwarfare and cyberterrorism be a top security priority for the United States? What is an appropriate response?

It seems most of the cyberwarfare attacks can be divided into either denial of service attacks (where a website is blocked for a period of time, but no information is stolen), propaganda (distribution of political/religious ideology), or cyber espionage (where sensitive information is compromised or stolen).

The first two appear to be more annoying than anything else. They don't really pose any security threat to the United States. And remember this is through the public domain. What does North Korea gain if public citizens can't access the State Department's website for a couple of hours? Inconveniencing Americans, if anything.

Look at one of the most well known instances of cyberwarfare, the 2007 Cyberwar between Estonia and Russia. The only result of this "war" was the spamming of Estonian websites and denial of service. No deaths, no destruction. Why are we to think cyberwarfare should be anywhere near the top of our national security priorities?

Cyber espionage sounds dangerous, and by all means, sensitive information within the government's servers should be secured using advanced technology. But government servers are going to have a higher level of security than anything in the public domain, so the notion that North Koreans, Chinese, or anybody else could hack into DoD and steal all of our nation's secrets is implausible at best. Much like terrorists acquiring and using nuclear weapons, there seems to be a lot of Cheney's "1% Doctrine" in discussions about cyberwarfare.

Obama Goes to Russia

2009-07-05T20:47:00.000-07:00

As President Obama heads to Russia this week to discuss a variety of issues, the stakes couldn't be higher. Nuclear disarmament will be high on the list, as will other pressing issues, such as supply routes to Afghanistan, Georgia (where tensions are running high), and the proposed missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The fact that Russia has allowed the US to fly in its territory to deliver supplies to Afghanistan is a significant olive branch. This was a contentious issue between the two countries, and the fact that Russia has essentially conceded shows a willingness to perhaps compromise in other areas. Perhaps Russia is not as worried about the US projecting power in the former stomping grounds? Or perhaps they simply don't have the influence and resources they once had, so they had no choice but to concede.

The discussions of nuclear arms reductions have several different angles to look at; the missile shield in Eastern Europe and the actual size of the proposed stockpiles. I think the Russians have sufficient reason to be threatened and upset at the proposed missile defense shield in Europe. Like I argued a while back, the best way to reach a compromise is to do something similar to what MIT's Ted Postol is proposing, which is to use specialized UAVs (which already exist) to neutralize the "threat" from Iran and North Korea. The missile technology of these rogue states is limited, and they can only launch from a handful of sites. This system poses no threat to Russia, who has far more advanced missile technology and an abundance of sites to launch from.

With regards to the potential stockpile levels, I think this is a very superficial discussion. Reducing to 1,700 to 2,200 warheads is important politically, but it really does nothing strategically. Showing the world a willingness to reduce arms is important if we're going to continue to preach the benefits of arms control, but in reality, the difference between 5,000 and 2,000 warheads is minimal. That being said, it's important for Medvedev and Obama to update START, as this is an issue the world seems to be united behind, and we really can't afford to throw away opportunities like this.

Issues like human rights/democracy and the situation in Georgia will also be discussed, but I think Obama should really minimize these issues. We're left open to charges of hypocrisy if we emphasize the lack of human rights/democracy in Russia, but continue to keep quiet over Iran (which I think is the correct course of action). With Georgia, Obama and McCain rushing to Saakashvili's side during the South Ossetian War last year was a grave miscalculation, and so was all of the talk about expanding NATO to include Georgia. In reality, I think it was mixed US signals that caused Saakashvili to make the decision to attempt to retake South Ossetia in the first place. The future of South Ossetia and Saakashvili really has no significance to US security interests, so the less it's talked about, the better I say.

All in all, this next week will be vital to the Obama administration on numerous fronts, and it's an opportunity to make serious headway after Russian-US relations were fractured under Bush.

The Littoral Combat Ship

2009-07-05T20:30:00.000-07:00

Adm. James Lyons has a pretty good op-ed in the Washington Times about the current and future prospects for the littoral combat ship, one of the hot-button issues in today's naval discussions. Lyons runs through the familiar arguments against procuring more of the LCS, namely its high cost- nearly $700 million for the first couple of ships built.

What interests me is whether or not this ship is functional in modern naval warfare. Basically, the LCS is a small surface vessel designed to operate in the littoral area (close to the shore) and perform a variety of functions- a Swiss army knife of the navy. It can be configured for anti-submarine operations, mine clearing, and the deployment of SEAL teams near the shore. There are some drawbacks though. The LCS was designed with speed and compactness in mind, and as a result, its endurance is only around 20-25 days. If DoD is really serious about shifting to alternate models of warfare, shouldn't they be pushing for a ship that can last longer-something necessary to conduct naval counterinsurgency?

I don't think it's been adequately addressed whether or not the existing frigates, destroyers, and Coast Guard vessels can handle the tasks the LCS was designed for. Before we build dozens of these ships and deploy them as part of a new naval strategy, these questions, as well as the ever increasing cost, have to be addressed.

Escalation in Afghanistan

2009-07-02T09:05:00.000-07:00

The United States launched a massive operation in southern Afghanistan this week, apparently aimed at defeating Taliban strongholds. This is a coordinated effort between the Marines and indigenous Afghan forces in an operation called Khanjar, or "Strike of Sword." This operation reveals a fatal flaw in US strategy in Afghanistan. Sergeant Charles Marsh said of the operation,

The combined U.S. and Afghan mission is to provide security for population
centers along the Helmand river valley and to connect local citizens with their
legitimate government while establishing stable and secure conditions for
national elections scheduled in August as well as to enhance security in the
future

How is this advancing vital US security interests? This is no different from any nation building missions of the 1990's. It's simply not the responsibility of the United States military to ensure stable conditions for elections or democratic processes. Obviously we would like to see a stable, peaceful, democratic Afghanistan emerge, but history suggests that is a triumph of hope over experience. Indeed, powerful nations like the British Empire and the Soviet Union were caught in the Afghan quagmire, and both learned the same lesson: Afghans do not like foreign occupiers. The United States is destined to learn this lesson the hard way.

Furthermore, why are we so concerned with the Taliban? Prof. John Muellar of Ohio State pointed out correctly that the so called risks associated with letting the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan is not worth a long war it will take to remove them from power permanently. The Taliban isn't stupid, they're not going to let al-Qaeda prop back up, considering that's what go them thrown out of power in the first place. They are merely concerned with their own security and legitimizing their power within the territorial constraints of Afghanistan.

If we want to preserve the security of Americans, the best way to do that is to de-escalate from Afghanistan, not adding tens of thousands more troops like the Obama administration wants. War in Afghanistan is a fruitless endeavor as we don't understand the culture (much like Iraq) enough to stabilize democracy and advance our security interests. A compromise could be to leave residual forces in (special ops perhaps) to work in coordination with the Afghan police to counter whatever terrorists remain in the country.

The Future of Iraq

2009-06-30T19:18:00.000-07:00

As stipulated by the Status of Forces Agreement, US forces have started to withdrawal from major cities within Iraq. US forces will still be in the country, but today certainly represents a new day for the Iraqi people. While there was some violence in Kirkuk, pulling the troops out of Iraq is still the correct decision.

But while the withdrawal is an important event, the future of Iraq is clouded with many questions. One of the effects of the "surge" was establishing Iranian strategic dominance in Iraq for the next 10-15 years with Prime Minister al-Maliki. The US withdrawal immediately makes Iraq Iran's problem. With all of Iran's internal issues at the moment, this could present an insurmountable challenge for the ruling theocracy in Tehran. I'm not sure if this will result in a shifting of the balance of power in the Middle East, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on.

The prospects of long term stability in Iraq is also a serious question mark at this point in time. Progress has been made to some extent, but one of the side effects of the occupation was rekindling the ethnic rivalries between Sunni, Shia, and the Kurds. We're seeing a similar situation emerge now in Bosnia & Herzegovina, where the ethnic rivalries between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks are threatening to tear the country apart once again. This is happening even in the relative stability of Europe. Middle Eastern politics are famous for their combustibility, so the relationships between the ethnic groups will be vital for the future of Iraq.

Where does the United States go from here? I think it will make the US more hesitant to engage in prolonged occupations in the future. Nobody is interested in repeating the problems experienced in Iraq, and future administrations will no doubt notice the negative shift in public opinion which has effectively ruined the Republican party in the short term. I also think the US will devote more time and resources to learning effective post conflict stability operations. The US lost the will of the Iraqi people when it had no plan after the initial invasion and removal of Saddam.

But this is a seismic event in the history of Iraq, and it's going to be worth watching our the events in Iran effect the transition in Iraq.

Terrorism & Failed States

2009-06-27T13:45:00.000-07:00

The United States has given around $10 million in small arms and munitions to help the Somali government fight against al-Shabaab, widely seen as a proxy for al-Qaeda. al-Shabaab controls most of southern Somalia, and nearly all of the capital Mogadishu. War has engulfed the east African nation for years, and the US is no stranger to the country, having intervened in the early 1990's.

I'm not sure that aiding the Somali government is something the United States should be actively doing. Officials in the State Department and the Pentagon have predicted Somalia as the next terrorist incubator for years now. If Somalia falls to radical Islamists, is the United States adversely effected? I think the whole failed states as terrorist havens is an idea that dominates most of the foreign policy establishment, but is severely misguided. Terrorism is a phenomenon that can exist in a variety of states. The liberal democracies of western Europe were home to numerous terrorist groups between the 60's and 90's, so it's not an occurrence isolated to third world countries. And while the United States has not had the same experiences of domestic terrorism as some other countries, several groups from Puerto Rican nationalists to Aryan Nations have been able to operate successfully.

Look at Afghanistan. al-Qaeda was able to set up a permanent base for operations only with the help of the Taliban, which exerted powerful rule over the country. Terrorists need a stable environment, it does them no good to be involved in civil wars, as that only misdirects their energy and resources. We should keep an eye on Somalia, but this sort of offshore balancing is not likely to help either the Somalis or Americans.

The F-22 & Choices

2009-06-25T15:00:00.000-07:00

It increasingly looks like the F-22 will be saved, as the Senate Armed Services Committee markup of the FY2010 Defense Authorization Bill provided funding for seven more fighters. The Washington Times ran an op-ed that calls on Congress to save the F-22 program. It features some common mistakes and misguided warnings.

Debate has been vigorous, but the F-22 line enjoys bipartisan support and the availability of reasonable, unobligated funding options in fiscal 2010 and the possibility of production in fiscal 2011

What funding options are the authors talking about? They've cried foul when other programs are in danger of being cut (see here and here), so what exactly are they proposing we get rid of?

The continuing development of advanced fighters and proliferation of surface-to-air missile systems abroad is increasingly placing American air superiority in question

This is an interesting statement. What we have to consider is that due to the F-22's runaway costs, the Air Force has reduced pilot's training to only about 10-12 hours a month. The surest way to put US air superiority in question is to rob our pilots of training, rather than procure more of the F-22.

Existing fourth generation fighters from China and Russia can already challenge our legacy platforms. Their fifth generation aircraft will be even more formidable

Again, why are we naturally assuming that we are going to face China or Russia in an imminent total war? Our fourth generation fighters are miles ahead of anything coming out of China or Russia. And if we procure more of the F-35 (which I don't think is a great air craft either, but it is much better than the F-22), then that should be more than enough to deal with threats from across the spectrum. Having an imagined war with China or Russia drive our defense budget is a recipe for disaster. Do we want more conventional funding or more counterinsurgency funding? The hawks can't have it both ways.

More on the F-22 & Defense Spending

2009-06-23T21:33:00.000-07:00

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), who despite being pretty terrible on spending in every other part of the federal government, has always proposed cutting our bloated defense budget. Today, he advocated eliminating the $369 million earmarked for continued procurement of the F-22 Raptor, the disastrous fighter that has no relevant mission in the 21st Century.

Speaking to the Center for American Progress, he said,

I am of course struck that so many of my colleagues who are so worried about the
deficit apparently think the Pentagon is funded with Monopoly money that somehow
doesn't count.

This is a pretty good assessment of the problems at the Pentagon. Neoconservatives have made it their modus operandi to criticize President Obama's spending plans, but continue to want even higher defense spending, claiming we need to be spending at least 4% of GDP on national defense, even though that argument is incredibly misguided. The F-22 is at the heart of this argument. It might sound over-dramatic, but I think the F-22 will tell us exactly where the Pentagon is going to go.

Pakistan and Blowback

2009-06-23T19:17:00.000-07:00

The New York Times is reporting that US drones have killed 60 people at a funeral in South Waziristan. If true, this would make it the most deadly attack carried out by a UAV under either the Bush or Obama administration. I've never understood how drone strikes were supposedly advancing US interests in Pakistan. Everytime I read something about them, there seems to be alot of collateral damage, resulting in civilian casaulties.

I suppose the United States still hasn't learned the principal of blowback. For every civilian or even "terrorist" we kill, we create 50 more. We've seen this happen in Iran, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. The US military doesn't need to be continually involved in Pakistan. We have a national security interest, as the FATA regions in Pakistan harbor terrorists, but coordinated intelligence and police efforts can better combat the problem.

Strategic Changes at the Pentagon?

2009-06-23T12:00:00.000-07:00

It's been widely reported that the next QDR (which drives military spending, force readiness, and training), will reflect a shift in strategic thinking at DoD. The common assumption is that the military will have to simultaneously prepare for conventional, set piece battles with nation states like China and counterinsurgency operations.

This new idea of "hybrid warfare" I think presents the United States with a multitude of problems. Part of this stipulates that the military has to prepare to fight more than two wars at a time. One lesson I would hope we have learned over the last 6-7 years is the strategic blunder of fighting multiple wars at once. The inability to focus on one conflict is likely to encourage missteps in planning and execution. This is typified in the oft-cited example of abandoning the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban to go to war against Iraq.

We also have to acknowledge that the concept of "hybrid warfare" also is likely to continually drive up defense spending for the foreseeable future. If we view every failed state, rogue state, and emerging power as a threat, then we are not likely to cut our bloated defense budget. The structure of the international system will ensure that conflicts continually emerge, and military planners will want to make sure that the United States is prepared to deal with every possible challenge. This almost sounds like the classic "Dick Cheney Doctrine" where if there's a 1% chance that a terrorist attack will occur, then we have to treat it as if it's a certainty. Of course there's a chance that China could eventually threaten the United States. But it's not likely, even for the next several decades.

I also thought this part of the article was interesting:

But powerful constituencies in the military and in Congress continue to
argue that the next war will not look like Iraq or Afghanistan, and they say
the military is focusing too much on counter-insurgency and losing its ability to
defeat a traditional nation-state.

To a certain extent, I think this is correct. I don't believe that the next conflict will resemble Iraq. Planners and strategists will not want to repeat it. Aside from the usual neoconservative apologists who continue to espouse the greatness of the Iraq War, I don't think the common politician or citizen is really interested in occupying another Muslim country. But I'm not so sure that the next conflict will resemble this grand battle against another power either. Future conflicts I think will be predominately civil wars, border skirmishes, and asymmetrical surgical strikes.

Since the end of the Cold War, we've seen hosts of civil wars that have lured the great powers into entering (the Yugoslav wars of the early 90's, the Somali Civil War) and ones that have been shunned by the international community (i.e. Darfur, Rwanda). I think this pattern will continue. Some civil wars will entice the United States into entering, and some will repel intervention.

Border skirmishes are likely to be the most dangerous form of future warfare, though I don't think the United States needs to necessarily be involved in these types of conflicts. Remember, the geostrategic position of the United States is extremely favorable. I would consider the Israel-Lebanon War in 2006 and the South Ossetia War in 2008 as border skirmishes that escalated very rapidly. The two wars differ in context, though not by much. The Pentagon has looked towards the Israel-Lebanon War as a model for future conflict, but I think this is misguided. The one border problem the United States has is all the drug violence coming from Mexico, but aside from a few shootouts and isolated kidnappings, I think this is more of a problem the police, and to a limited extent DHS should be dealing with rather than the military.

Asymmetrical surgical strikes, like what we see happening in Northern Iraq and during the NATO strike on Kosovo, are also likely to continue in the future. US aerial dominance will encourage this type of behavior, and I wouldn't be surprised if this type of action continues and possibly grows in Pakistan. It's also going to take some time for enemy air defenses to be able to successfully counter US stealth technology on a consistent basis, so not much will deter such action in the future.

So, what does all this mean for the United States? Luckily, if policymakers and politicians are smart (and this is assuming an awful lot), we don't necessarily have to be involved. Civil Wars and failed states are not likely to threaten our national security no matter what fear mongers might tell you. And while border skirmishes can escalate into full scale wars, the United States is in a benign threat environment, surrounded by allies and weak militaries. And politicians might be willing to pull the plug on UAV missions in Pakistan if public opinion continues to nosedive. In general, the United States does have potential threats and adversaries, but fortifying itself in places around the world is not likely to make us any safer.

The Logic of CTBT

2009-06-22T13:00:00.000-07:00

Last week, Secretary General of the UN Ban ki-Moon tried to persuade the general assembly to adopt the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The treaty was originally signed in 1996, but it does not come into force until 44 nations sign and ratify it, and there have been some notable absentees from the list, including the United States, Israel, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran.

On a strategic level, would adopting CTBT make sense for the United States? Would it make sense for the other nuclear nations? I think alot depends on how the international community is actually going to enforce this. Persuasion is a very difficult thing to achieve in international politics, and persuading states to not test nuclear weapons might be a difficult sell. This is especially true when you talk about North Korea and Iran, who are more than likely the real targets of CTBT. But we already know that North Korea and Iran are willing to violate resolutions, as there is not much to dissuade them from proceeding with their programs. Sanctions don't work on an already isolated North Korea, and military action would be a huge miscalculation. So I think the effect of CTBT on rogue states is limited at best until the international community can find suitable means to enforce it.

I do think ratifying CTBT makes sense for the United States. After all, the United States has not conducted nuclear tests since 1992. It's often said that in order to have effective deterrence, you have to be willing and able to use your weapons. If you have functional weapons but your opponent knows you won't use them, deterrence fails. Likewise, if you are willing to use your weapons but they do not work, deterrence fails. But every Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy for the past decade or so has stated that our strategic forces are operable and capable and will remain that way for a long time. In addition, the Stockpile Stewardship program (comprehensive report here) is the right way to proceed with ensuring weapons capability without resorting to testing. It would be a tad hypocritical for the United States to be yelling at Kim Jong-il for testing nuclear weapons and then subsequently carrying out tests of our own. This is one of the issues that we can find common ground with the rest of the world, as most of the world wants such a treaty in play. After the numerous foreign policy disasters by the Bush Administration, finding this common ground is absolutely essential.

US & Russian Nuclear Stockpiles

2009-06-21T18:24:00.000-07:00

Dmitriy Medvedev has given his clearest indication yet that Russia is willing to significantly reduce its strategic force size ahead of the expected START negotiations. Under the framework of the negotiations, Russia said it would eventually reduce its stockpile to around 1,500 warheads by 2012 or so.

Should the United States reduce its strategic force stockpile? I think there are a couple of important issues to address. I can't help but think that any sort of reworking START is blinded by Cold War era thinking. Russian and American stockpiles have a sort of symbiotic relationship; there's an assumption that both countries strategic forces have to be equal in size and scope. 20 years after the Cold War, is this still a rational approach to arms control? Why does Russia still need to maintain parity with the US arsenal? I suppose the rational answer is say Russia feels like it has to maintain the balance of power in Eurasia, but even saying that is Cold War minded.

The next issue is what the proper number of delivery systems should be. There have been talks of eventually outlawing the use of MIRV ICBMs, and moving to single warhead missiles. I'm not sure how relevant this approach is; it seems more symbolic more than anything. Indeed, the reason Obama and Medvedev are probably proposing this is because they know that the diplomatic non-proliferation leverage from moving to single warhead missiles will be massive, and they won't really be giving up any firepower. This all goes back to the Waltz argument that there's not much more you can do with 2,000 warheads that you can't do with 250-300 or so warheads. There are warheads (like the B83)in the US arsenal that have a potential payload of 1.2 megatons. This pales in comparison to the 15 or so kiloton bomb that was detonated in Hiroshima in 1945 and dwarfs the 1.5 to 3 kiloton bomb the North Koreans supposedly detonated a month ago.

I think these talks are a fundamentally good thing for the future of US-Russian relations. I still think it makes sense for both countries to have a minimal deterrent, but in the current threat environment, it's now possible for both countries to work towards stockpile reductions. Hopefully these negotiations go well, as the United States desperately needs Russian support on a host of issues, from ending the war in Afghanistan to dealing with regional nuisances like Iran.

The Continued Saga of the F-22

2009-06-18T14:03:00.000-07:00

When Secretary of Defense Robert Gates rolled out his FY2010 budget, he made the call to halt F-22 Raptor production at 187 units. After all, the F-22 has not flown a single sortie in Iraq or Afghanistan, having been designed to go up against Soviet MiGs when it was conceived in the 1980's. But yesterday, Congress went against Gates' demands and put in $369 million for continued production of the jet.

There are two different issues to discuss with regard to the F-22. First is the way in which the military industrial complex is in full swing. Congressmen like Saxby Chambliss (D-GA) have been touting the F-22 as vital for our national security for quite some time, but in reality Chambliss' interests are much more self centered. The F-22 is primarily assembled at a Lockheed Martin plant in Marietta, and if funding was cut, then jobs might be lost. What Chambliss fails to address is that the cuts in F-22 are practically being offset by the increases in F-35 production, so these jobs won't exactly wither up and die instantly if production on the F-22 was ceased. This is not about national security for Chambliss, it's about jobs. But why should hundreds of millions of Americans continue to subsidize a plane that it doesn't even need? This brings us to our second point, effectiveness of the F-22 in modern warfare.

To put it bluntly, the F-22 has no effectiveness in modern warfare. Due to the runaway costs of the F-22, less money is available for the USAF to properly train new pilots. Any military aviation strategist will tell you it's more about the level of training the pilot has rather than what kind of equipment. When Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, the IDF was 82-0 in aerial combat exchanges against Syrian MiGs, and IDF officials said the results would have been the same if the pilots switched aircraft because of the superior training. The F-22's sluggish size and poor maneuverability mean that it would struggle against fourth generation aircraft. The F-15 and F-16 have performed far better in agility tests. In addition, the "stealth" of the F-22 hinders its combat performance; all weapons systems must be kept behind doors, which negates the F-22's ability to engage in instantaneous engagements.

Going back to what I said earlier, the fact that the F-22 has not had one single mission in either Iraq or Afghanistan is very worrisome when considering building more of these planes. What kinds of conflicts are we expecting to fight? As I've said before on this blog, the imagined confrontation with China or Russia simply isn't likely to happen for a very long time. In the absence of World War III, the kinds of conflicts the US is likely to get dragged into will probably be missions that are heavily dependent on counterinsurgency strategy. Ground forces will be dominant, with USAF and Naval aircraft more likely to be involved in close air support and bombing missions. Air to air combat will not play a dominant role, as our enemies either do not have air forces or have very weak air forces.

The F-22 needs to be completely scrapped; it's time to go back to the drawing board and design an aircraft that can be both cost-effective and combat-effective. The US has enormous aerial superiority, and can use this as an invitation to design better aircraft in the time being. The F-22 and the equally disastrous F-35 Joint Strike Fighter need to be eliminated if we ever want to get serious about fixing the problems at the Pentagon and making this country safe.

A Shield for Central Europe & Alternatives

2009-06-17T15:48:00.000-07:00

Deputy Defense Secretary William Lind told Congress yesterday that the United States plans to integrate Russian radar installations into a missile shield that would cover most of Central Europe. Currently, there is a radar installation in the Czech Republic and ground based interceptors in Poland. When the missile defense shield was announced in 2007, there was the predictable firestorm of controversy, with analysts pointing out (correctly, in my view) that the shield was provoking to Russia.

While this new approach is certainly refreshing from the Bush doctrine of wanting the missile shield in Europe no matter what Russia thought, is it really the best option for dealing with the supposed threat from Iran or North Korea?

Theodore Postol, who is a professor of science, technology, and international security at MIT, wrote an op-ed a couple of months ago that outlines a good approach for this issue. If there really has to be a missile shield in Central Europe, it might as well be one that makes sense strategically and technologically. Postol's idea is for a boost phase defense with UAVs. He says,

...it would take advantage of the fact that long-range missiles built by Iran
or North Korea would be large and cumbersome, have long powered flight times
and could take off only from well-known launching sites.
The defense would have fast-accelerating interceptors that could home in on
and destroy the large, slow and fragile ICBMs. The interceptors would weigh
about a ton and could achieve a top speed of five kilometers per second in tens
of seconds. They would be carried by stealthy unmanned airborne vehicles that
look like B-2 bombers, but are smaller and carry much smaller, though still
substantial, payloads. Such vehicles already exist.
Only two of these armed drones, controlled by remote teams of operators,
would be needed to patrol within several hundred kilometers of a launching site.
At these ranges, it would be possible to shoot down an ICBM, with its nuclear
warhead, so that the debris falls on the territory of the country that launched
it. Only five drones would be needed to maintain a continuous patrol for
extended periods. But the system would have to operate only when satellites and
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that an ICBM is being prepared at the launching
site.

There have been proposals for boost phase defense, primarily from the Boeing YAL-1, which was slashed in Gates' FY2010 budget, but this one seems logical and comparable to the threat. Deterrence should be enough to take care of these rogue states, but in some wild scenario, perhaps a power struggle or massive internal conflict, and the nukes get launched, then a UAV with boost phase capabilities makes sense. The fact that this technology already exists makes it appealing, as hundreds of millions of Pentagon dollars don't need to be funneled into the program; minor tweaks could make the system operational and deployable. What makes this system additionally appealing is that it poses no threat to Russia or China. This way the US gets what it wants, it can tell the public that it is dealing with potential threats, while not threatening Russia or China, whose cooperation we need on a host of issues.

More on Missile Defense

2009-06-16T10:29:00.000-07:00

The House Armed Services Committee is marking up the 2010 defense authorization bill today, and there is expected to be an amendment that would restore funds for ground based interceptors, which lost some funding in Gates' FY2010 request.

HR 2845 has some interesting provisions in it,

1) Includes a Statement of Policy that Congress-
• acknowledges that North Korea’s and Iran’s long-range ballistic missile technology is improving and could be used to deliver chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons;
• expresses concern that North Korea’s and Iran’s long-range ballistic missile technology poses a real threat to the United States homeland;
• realizes missile delivery technology and warheads could be passed along to state and non-state actors; and
• supports ballistic missile protection of United States allies and forward deployed forces but believes it should not come at the expense of the protection of the United States homeland.

The first point is pretty vague. By "improving," the amendment fails to recognize that North Korea has had a total of two long range ICBM (Taepodong-2) tests since 2006, and both have failed. The one in 2006 failed in the boost phase and the more recent one in April crashed in the ocean after a couple of minutes. As of now, North Korea cannot attach their warheads on their long range ICBMs, and this is not an easy thing to accomplish. Iran's long range capability (mainly the Shahab or Sejil class) can threaten the region, but it cannot even come close to reaching the United States. States do not acquire nuclear weapons to use them, they are mainly political tools, to improve their own security. The surest way for a country to put its security in jeopardy is to launch nuclear strikes. In addition, we don't have any indication that either North Korea or Iran has capabilities for chemical or biological strikes, that seems like old fashioned fear mongering, something the Republicans have become very adept at peddling.

The second point I think really explains how inept our Congressional leaders are at talking about threat perception. It's quite clear none of them understand deterrence theory. Do North Korean/Iranian ICBM's pose a threat to the homeland? If either country were foolish enough to launch a strike on the United States, they would be instantly eliminated. Neither North Korea nor Iran possess any substantial military capability, and both have near destitute economies. Risking a war with the world's hegemonic power would have disastrous consequences for North Korea and Iran.

The third point is interesting. Could North Korea or Iran pass along their nuclear weapons (which Iran doesn't have yet) to non state actors (i.e. terrorists)? The idea of terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons has been one of the hot topic issues in national security since 9/11. Prof. John Mueller at Ohio State has done a lot of work on this subject, and I tend to agree with his basic conclusions that the likelihood of a group acquiring these weapons is getting smaller, and the technological expertise that a terrorist group would have to have in order to operate nuclear weapons is practically unattainable (for Mueller's full report, see here). In addition, in several years when both North Korea and Iran could potentially have weapons, they are only going to have a handful. Why then would they want to decrease their own security by giving their weapons away to unpredictable terrorist groups? When countries proliferate, there comes added responsibility. For example, if the United States was the victim of a terrorist nuclear attack tomorrow, Iran would not be suspected, because they do not have nuclear weapons. But in 4-5 years, Iran would no doubt be at the top of a very short list of suspects.

The fourth and final point seems to fail to understand the necessary defense choices we are going to have to make in the next several years. At some point we are going to have to cut spending. In the post 9/11 climate of fear, any reduction in defense spending (whether or not that spending actually aids in the fight against terrorism) is seen as a sign of weakness. I would prefer that the troops come home from Afghanistan immediately as I think it's turned into a state building exercise, but if they are going to be there, we have to make sure they have the tools they need. This means we have to make some tough choices. Gates and DoD have correctly (in my opinion) identified that the threat of North Korea and Iran has been exaggerated, and we can reduce missile defense funding, because it just isn't practical now.

A Note on Iran

2009-06-13T16:07:00.000-07:00

After weeks of heated campaigning in Iran between incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his challenger Hossein Mousavi, Ahmadinejad won reelection by an apparent 63%. This is not the result that the United States wanted, for obvious reasons, but I'm hesitant to think that Mousavi would have been monumentally better than Ahmadinejad. For one thing, for the issues the United States really cares about, i.e. Iran's nuclear program, getting help on regional problems like Iraq and Afghanistan, a change in president would likely have not shifted policy all that much. Iran's nuclear program has alot of political capital invested in it, and that would have been incredibly hard to reverse, even if Mousavi had won the election.

Second, the Ayatollah is still in power. Nothing has changed at the top. The president of Iran has no real power when it comes to any foreign policy issues, everything must be approved the Ayatollah. Ahmadinejad might have been given a longer leash when it comes to things like domestic policy and social issues, but the Ayatollahs get the final word on Iran's relations with the rest of the world.

That being said, I still think that this election has some significance in the grand scheme of things, and I don't think it's akin to the kind of "rubber stamp" elections held in places like Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Belarus, even if Ahmadinejad's reelection had some irregularities. Over the last few weeks, the political culture of Iran has grown to heights rarely seen in the Middle East. Besides having record turnout, televised debates were shown for the first time. These factors are likely to have at least a marginal positive impact in the future.

What does this mean for the United States? President Obama and the people at the State Department know they are going to have to deal with Ahmadinejad for another four years. As I've stated before, I don't believe Iran's nuclear program poses the threat that many people would have you believe, and from a security perspective, I can understand why they would want nuclear weapons. That being said, they are still a few years away from producing an active bomb, and they are legally able to produce nuclear power for peaceful purposes. The best way for the US to get what it wants is to continue on in the diplomatic route. The "bigger carrots and bigger sticks" approach of the Bush administration is certain to push the two countries further apart, and we need Iran's help on the critical regional problems I mentioned earlier.

Bunker Busters & North Korea

2009-06-12T11:06:00.000-07:00

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency issued a report which outlined its goals for creating much more powerful so called "bunker buster" nukes- 5X more powerful by the end of 2009 and 10X more powerful in 2013. The premise of bunker busters is to have the ability to neutralize WMD silos under ground. This issue has resurfaced since North Korea's nuclear test last month. Being able to take out DPRK's nukes without having to send boots on the ground would obviously be appealing to many on the right and the left.

However, would the United States actually authorize such a move? I think it would be extremely risky to do such a thing. Intelligence in North Korea isn't exactly reliable, so how could the United States be confident in destroying all the nuclear installations? If the US were to authorize a bunker busting strike, and is moderately successful, then North Korea would be backed into a corner, and desperate to cling to power, might launch retaliatory strikes against Seoul.

I'm sure it could be argued that bunker busters are inherently offensive rather than defensive weapon systems, as I think their existence circumvents traditional deterrence methods. If you know your opponent has something to neutralize your primary bargaining chip, then the rules of the game can dramatically shift. In the context of North Korea, I don't think the US would risk such a move, at least not know. The internal situation in North Korea is very combustible, if Kim Jong-il (who's questionable medical status has reemerged) were to die, and a struggle for power were to ensue. I'm not saying that's likely or possible, but it's something that needs to be acknowledged. Bunker buster strikes at this point would do much more harm than good.

Securing Pakistan's Nukes

2009-06-10T21:37:00.000-07:00

A senior defense official called the proposed plans for a military intervention to secure Pakistan's nukes "wildly hypothetical and speculative." This is reassuring to say the least. A military intervention in Pakistan to secure access is flawed on several levels.

On a political level, I don't think it would be wise to intervene in Pakistan in any capacity. When you look at how popular the US drone attacks are, you can safely assume that any intervention would be met with extremely harsh criticism. Furthermore, Pakistan is supposedly our ally, and using military force inside their country is unlikely to improve those relations.

On a strategic level, do we have the resources to secure a country as large as Pakistan? Remember, it took close to 20 combat brigades to secure Iraq, a country with around 25 million people. Pakistan has close to 170 million people, how do expect to secure the entire country? If the US redeployed its forces from all over the world and called up all of its reserves, it would only have around 75-80 combat brigades, far below what it would take to confidently secure Pakistan. Securing parts of the country would not make much sense, so you would almost have to have SOF (special operations forces) do the work. If Pakistan were to "fail," how would SOF get deep inside the country (where the weapons probably are)? Getting to the weapons would be a problem, and getting the weapons out would be a problem. You are looking at using helicopters, and considering the nuclear weapons installations are likely to be heavily guarded, the probability of success rapidly dwindles.

While Pakistan is not a model for stability at the moment, we should not overestimate or overreact to the potential threat. Make no mistake, if Pakistan imploded, and the military split into factions, then that is a very worrying scenario. But if a state actor got control of the weapons, I would think that conventional deterrence theory applies. The threat of radical military factions giving the nuclear weapons to terrorists is also of concern. Pakistan only has a handful of operational weapons, why would the radical faction willingly give some up when possessing the weapons gives them a legitimate grip on power?

Worldwide Military Expenditures

2009-06-09T13:57:00.001-07:00

The Swedish think tank SIPRI released their annual report on worldwide military spending yesterday, and the results are to be expected. The United States still vastly outspends everybody else in the world, and China's budget is growing. While it is no longer true that the US still spends more than everybody else in the world combined, most of the other countries in the top ten are NATO allies, so it's more or less a misnomer.

If you take all of the countries that are widely accepted to be the United States' "rivals" such as China, Russia, Iran, Syria, etc., the numbers don't even come close to matching the US, and that's if you use the high end estimates for both Russia and China.

The report also concluded that worldwide military expenditures have risen about 45% in the last decade. Why is this? I found this quote in the report very troubling: "The introduction of the idea of 'the war on terrorism' has encouraged several countries to see their problems from a very militarized perspective, and is used to justify high military spending." That line is by Sam-Perlo Freeman, who authored SIPRI's study. I think that reason for more spending is largely true, but is it necessary?

Boosting defense spending isn't likely to curb terrorism, especially if we spend it on things that are not even applicable to the fight against terrorism, such as the F-22, which has never been used in a single sortie in either Afghanistan or Iraq. Streamlined intelligence and coordinated police efforts have been proven to be more effective ways to combat terrorism rather than huge military budgets. The US was spending hundreds of billions of dollars on defense, and that did not stop 9/11 from happening, and it has not stopped the emergence of China.

So what is the right amount of defense spending? Well, that would depend on what you see is the proper role of the United States in the world. If you think that the US should engage in small proxy wars on nearly every continent, then you need a high level of military spending. On the other hand, if you think that the US would be safer if it kept its nose out of other country's civil wars and internal conflicts, then a massive reduction in spending is possible. Projecting massive military power around the world is likely to result in us being less safe. If we want to stay safe, then preventive wars, offshore balancing, and power projection are not the answers. Restraint is a better path towards a long lasting peace.

Iran, Israel, Nuclear Weapons, and Air Strikes

2009-06-06T12:10:00.000-07:00

A new report was issued this week that suggests that Iran has enough centrifuges to manufacture nuclear weapons in a few month's time. But the report also noted that the inspectors had found no evidence that Iran was shifting the fuel in order to make weapons. These events don't exactly shift the equation, and they do not tell us anything we didn't already know. Iran is allowed to have nuclear power as it is a signatory of the NPT. And if they were to ever weaponize, I don't think anybody would be shocked, but more importantly, we should not overreact. Any sort of unilateral US or Israeli air strike on Natanz would be incredibly counterproductive and is exactly the kind of operation Obama and Netanyahu should avoid.

The NY Times article linked also talks about how George W. Bush refused technological support for the Israelis in the event of a unilateral air strike on Iran. If true, this is one of the few things Bush actually did right during his presidency. President Obama has to make it clear to the Israelis that the United States will not tolerate unilateral action against Iran.

What many fail to realize is that an air strike on Iran is not likely to have positive results. Iran probably wants nuclear weapons for their own security. In international politics, states are motivated by their own survival and their leaders are rational and also focused on survival. Iran's military is not able to project dominance in the Middle East region, and I don't really see any signs that they are militarizing for a strike on Israel or U.S. interests. An aggresive Israeli air strike against Iran would likely motivate not only Iran, but the wider Muslim world. Iran would find allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan and would probably be able to counterbalance against Israel. In addition, the presence of Hamas and other militants inside Palestinian territory would also work against Israel. Having to fight a multifront conflict would be disastrous for Israel. The combination of these factors would likely dwarf the conflicts in 1967 or 1973.

The surest way for Israel to ensure its survival is to keep a watchful eye on Iran, but not to do anything overly aggressive. Israel has every right to preserve its security, but air strikes are just likely to anger the entire region, and potentially drag the United States either directly into a conflict, or in some kind of offshore balancing (sort of like the Lend/Lease acts with the UK around WWII).

The Nuclear Triad

2009-06-04T11:42:00.000-07:00

The Nuclear Triad in the Post Cold War Era

Throughout the Cold War, the nuclear triad was considered by policymakers and military strategists as a key capability in preserving both the United States’ deterrent and second strike capability. The combination of nuclear armed submarines, land based ballistic missiles, and aerial strategic bombers enabled a steady deterrent to both the United States and the Soviet Union. Since the decline of the Soviet military establishment and the absence of a major threat, however, the traditional nuclear triad is no longer a relevant approach to deterrence for the United States. Countries such as the United Kingdom and France are able to maintain a deterrent with an incomplete triad; would the United States be able to do the same? With Russia and the United States willing to reduce their nuclear arsenals and an increase in global strike capabilities, will the United States be able to solely use one part of the triad? This paper examines each part of the traditional nuclear triad in the context of modern U.S. nuclear strategy and advancements in military technology. Then, an alternate way to think about the nuclear triad and deterrence in the 21st Century is proposed.

Nuclear armed submarines, or SSBNs, are perhaps the most capable leg of the traditional nuclear triad. As of 2008, there are 14 nuclear armed Ohio-class submarines in the U.S. fleet, and they carry close to 38% of operational strategic forces.[1] The submarines carry up to 24 tactical D5 (TRIDENT) missiles each with MIRV capabilities, providing for an enormous amount of firepower.[2] SSBNs possess numerous advantages over land based ballistic missiles or aerial strategic bombers. Of most importance is a submarines ability to operate close to undetected over an enormous area, namely the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This sea roaming capability has two direct consequences. First, an SSBN is able to get in close proximity to its intended target, which in turn increases the lethality and accuracy of the SLBMs. Second, the broad range of operations makes it difficult for enemy navies to react and mobilize effective countermeasures.

That being said, there are still two major proposals which aim to neutralize the effectiveness of SSBNs, but in reality, reflect dated Cold War thinking about naval strategy. The first is the issue of communications between national command authority and the captain of the submarine. If submarines are unable to communicate with command and confirm their orders, then they are not of much use. In addition, they could theoretically become more dangerous if there were orders to treat a breakdown in communications as evidence of an attack. This logic is rooted in a Cold War era mindset. Over the past 15-20 years, there have been great advancements made in naval communications. Systems such as TACAMO aircraft and various satellite and shore based transmitters work concordantly to ensure communication linkages to SSBNs are not compromised. These developments are proven to be 99.99% reliable according to U.S. Naval estimates.[3] In addition, the development of the Extremely Low Frequency Communications Program allows SSBNs to operate at lower depths and at faster speeds while retaining the ability to receive low frequency messages.[4] Another school of thought is the advancements made in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) in the last decade. China’s navy has added ships with increased ASW capabilities[5], but it will take some time for any opposing navy to successfully countermeasure the U.S. strategic submarine fleet.

The second leg of the traditional nuclear triad, the strategic bomber capability, is both highly accurate, and highly vulnerable. Currently, the United States deploys three separate LRSA (long range strike/action) aircraft: 65 B1-B Lancer, 19 B-2A Sprit, and 67 B-52H Stratofortress.[6] Strategic bombers are highly accurate, perhaps even more so than SLBMs, and they can deliver their payload to a precise location in enemy territory, primarily due to the advancements in stealth technology. Also critically important is that strategic bombers can be recalled at the last minute if hostilities cease. In the nuclear age, there is always the slight possibility of an accidental launch or misuse of a nuclear weapon.[7] When a ballistic missile is fired from either land or sea, it cannot be taken back. But as with nuclear submarines, there are risks associated with relying on strategic bombers. First, there is the chance that the bomber could be shot down. While USAF stealth technology is highly advanced, it is not infallible, as was the case when Serbian militias downed an F-117 stealth bomber in 1999 during the NATO bombing of Kosovo.[8] Another issue is strategic bombers take a long time to reach their target, while ballistic missiles can strike a target in a matter of minutes. Advancements in fuel technology have helped out somewhat, but bombers launched from the United States still must be refueled in flight, and they still take a long time to reach their objective. Offshore air bases pose their own sets of problems, as it can be difficult to secure access to them.

The third and final leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), consists of LGM-30 Minuteman III missiles. As of 2008, there are currently 488 deployed Minuteman IIIs, each armed with the W62, W78, or W87 warhead.[9] Under the 1994 Nuclear Posture Review, the idea of single warhead nuclear weapons was put forward by the United States, but this idea has been reversed somewhat in recent years, with an eventual goal of 500 warheads on 450 missiles by the end of SORT in 2012. This would greatly reduce the use of MIRVs on ICBMs, decreasing both their lethality and reducing the risk for disaster. Even if plans to reduce the number of warheads on ICBMs occur, there are still advantages. U.S. ICBM silos are heavily fortified and are built to withstand heavy firepower. Also, ICBM silos are deployed at several places within the country, and a first strike on U.S. territory would be very unlikely to destroy them all. As of yet, directed energy and national missile defense is not at a point to severely limit a ICBMs capacity, but the technology is in place to make a difference in the future.

Now that each leg of the U.S. nuclear triad has been discussed, what is the way forward? The United States could easily maintain a successful and powerful deterrent by solely relying on SSBNs. From a strategic standpoint, the United States is blessed by the two large oceans which surround the continuous American territory and SSBNs are able to fully utilize this advantage to respond to a variety of threats. In addition, a reduced number of nuclear weapons scattered around in various locations is just as effective as having massive arsenals and an array of delivery systems.[10] SSBNs can combine the speed and lethality of ICBMs with the accuracy and survivability of strategic bombers. This versatility allows the United States to take a more restrained posture when it comes to our nuclear deterrent.

Going to an all SSBN force would also have other non-strategic implications. For one, the cost savings of maintaining a handful of submarines are much less than maintaining and modernizing ICBMs, silo maintenance, and upgrading strategic bombers. Second, an all SSBN force would decrease the likelihood of a nuclear disaster, going by the simple equation of less nuclear weapons equals a less chance of something going wrong. Finally, reducing the triad would give the United States significant diplomatic leverage in nuclear non-proliferation.

The model of the United Kingdom is one that the United States should look towards when thinking about the future of deterrence. Currently, the United Kingdom deterrent consists of four Vanguard class submarines with D-5 SLBMs. SIPRI estimates the UK to have around 185 active warheads.[11] In a geopolitical sense, the strategic position of the United States and United Kingdom is quite similar. Both countries have large maritime borders and a benign threat environment, which would allow for a reduction in strategic forces and delivery systems. In addition, it is necessary to look at who exactly needs to be deterred.

In the 21st Century, the United States is unlikely to face the types of threats confronting us in the 1960’s, 70’s, and 80’s. A reduced U.S. strategic posture relying on SSBNs would be able to deter rogue states such as Iran and North Korea as well as an emerging China and a regressing Russia. To reflect this shifting paradigm, the nuclear triad has to be reduced. A continuing reliance on all three legs no longer makes strategic sense in the post Cold War era. It is now feasible to do more with less.

Sources:

[1] Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. 2008. “U.S. nuclear forces, 2008.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64 (1): 50-53.
[2] “SSBN-726 Ohio Class FBM Submarines.” Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/ssbn-726 Accessed June 2, 2009.
[3] Mies, Adm. Richard M. “The SSBN in National Security.” The United States Navy. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/cno/n87/usw/issue_5/ntlsecurity.html Accessed June 3, 2009.
[4] Aftergood, Steven. “Extremely Low Frequency Communications Program.” Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/c3i/elf.htm Accessed June 2, 2009.
[5] Economy, Elizabeth and Michel Oskenberg. 1999. China Joins the World: Progress and Prospects. New York: Council on Foreign Relations
[6] The International Institute for Strategic Studies. 2009. The Military Balance 2009. London: Routledge
[7] For a detailed discussion, see: Sagan, Scott. 1995. The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
[8] Schmitt, Eric. 1999. “Downing a Stealth Jet: Shrewd Tactics or Lucky Shot?” The New York Times. 11 April 1999.
[9] Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. 2008. “U.S. nuclear forces, 2008.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 64 (1): 50-53.
[10] Waltz, Kenneth N. and Scott D. Sagan. 2002. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed. New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
[11] SIPRI. 2008. “United Kingdom’s Nuclear Forces.” http://first.sipri.org/search?country=GBR&dataset=nuclear-forces Accessed June 3, 2009.

Russia, the CSTO, and War Games

2009-06-03T13:10:00.000-07:00

Probably in response to NATO exercises in Georgia, the Russian military, alongside many of its closest allies in the region (Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.) will conduct extensive war games under the banner of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). The logic here seems fairly simple. Russia is trying to flex its collective muscle by creating an organization similar to NATO. And much like the United States does within NATO, Russia will dominate over the other members, who are probably just looking to Moscow for security.

Does a functional CSTO pose any sort of threat to Europe or NATO? The answer is no. As I've pointed out in a previous post, the Russian military has been slowly decaying since the end of the Cold War, and due to the harsh economic conditions in Russia, their defense spending will probably decline significantly over the next few years. And while I would be supportive of NATO ceasing to exist, I don't think that would encourage or bait the Russians to do anything stupid. They know what their capabilities are, are nobody looking at them really believes they have any real capabilities.

Russia's power projection does not extend past their previous sphere of influence during the days of the Soviet Union, so I don't really see the worry about them banding together with a few insignificant former Soviet republics and running war games. We all know Russia has tried to meddle in the affairs of the various republics, but it's usually a desperate attempt to reassert their dominance.

In addition, Russia wants to reset relations with the United States and make sure they can sell their oil to the rest of Europe. Starting another war severely damages those objectives.

The United States & Cuba

2009-06-03T11:33:00.000-07:00

I've tended to write more about security/military issues, but I felt this was important enough to merit its own post.

At a meeting between the Organization of American States, Sec. of State Hillary Clinton has been urged to readmit Cuba to the OAS after a 47 year absence. Also, the US and Cuba are set to resume talks over immigration between the two nations. These developments are important first steps, but there is still a long way to go, and I don't think anybody's forgotten that. The embargo has been a flat out disaster for the United States, and it has had terrible consequences on the people of Cuba.

We have to ask ourselves a very simple question, why is the embargo still there? What purpose does it serve? I think it primarily exists due to the influence of the Cuban lobby in Florida, but there are signs that is on the wane, as most of them are becoming older. In addition, President Obama, who won Florida in the 2008 election, was able to do so taking a more moderate approach on Cuba, something that would have been unthinkable in previous elections.

The embargo also speaks to the utter hypocrisy of US foreign policy. Are we really still that mad about the Cuban Missile Crisis? Do Fidel and Raul Castro really still bother us after all these years? It's ironic that the US is perfectly okay being friendly with brutal rulers like King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarek in Egypt, or any of the Central Asian tyrants like Nazerbayev from Kazakhstan or Karimov from Uzbekistan, but the regime in Cuba is entireably intolerable.

On a deeper level, the sanctions do not actually work. Barring trade from Cuba does nothing to bring regime change to the island, as democratic reform in Cuba has not gained much ground in the preceding four decades when the embargo has been in place. Their is almost no internal democratic reform movement in Cuba, why? Most of the ones that really hate Castro have left to move to the United States, because of the harsh economic conditions in Cuba....that the United States created.

If the US wants to continue to pretend like it's a bastion of free markets and capitalism, lifting this repressive and counterproductive embargo on Cuba is a good first step.

Mitt Romney is Crazy

2009-06-02T20:13:00.000-07:00

Just in case you forgot, Mitt Romney is crazy.

Here are a few of my favorite tidbits from Romney's speech to the Heritage Foundation.

- A $50 billion a year increase in defense modernization. Erm....what? We already approximate what the rest of the world spends on defense, and most of our nearest "competitors" are our allies such as the UK, Germany, and France. If you add up all the "bad guys" (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and let's throw in Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, and Libya for fun) it doesn't even come close to approaching the US defense budget. Our forces are already incredibly advanced and are capable of dealing with a wide range of threats. We spend over $650 billion a year on defense, and that number creeps over $800 billion if you add in war supplements, DHS, Veterans Affairs, and some other funds. The only way you can justify more defense spending is if you openly admit that you are a fanatical supporter of the military industrial complex.

-Regime crippling sanctions against North Korea. North Korea is perhaps the world's most isolated economy. They are not a part of the global economy. So what are sanctions going to achieve? Oh wait, sanctions worked so well in Cuba, forcing the Castro regime to democratize in a timely fashion...

-Full funding for missile defense. I've already spent a few posts talking about the fallacy of a national missile defense system, and how it would likely not stop countries like Iran and North Korea from proliferating. Again, the only justification Romney seems to give is old fashion fear mongering.

Missile Defense vs. Rogue States

2009-06-01T18:56:00.000-07:00

One of the more interesting aspects about missile defense for me has been whether or not it works against rogue states. In the wake of North Korea's nuclear test and their supposed upcoming long range missile test, recently desposed head weapons tester at DoD Charles McQueary said that the US would have a "reasonable chance" at intercepting a long range missile. While he can be confident of such a result, I think the testing would say otherwise. To date, there have only been 13 tests of the system since 1999, with 8 confirmed interceptions. There are two issues at stake, can we trust a system that's only been tested 13 times, and is a 62% success rate good enough?

There have been some good, quantitative studies done on the effectiveness of national missile defense (see here), and the results tend to say that missile defense enhances the stability of deterrence, but that the current limited system is ineffective against the large arsenals of Russia and China.

But what about rogue states? So far, Japanese theater missile defense has not dissuaded DPRK from attempting to build up its nuclear arsenal. Similarly, the missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic has not halted Iran's hopes of acquiring nuclear weapons. In these two cases, existing missile defense systems, which by all accounts would be able to sufficiently deal with the threat, have not dissuaded potential challengers.

This leaves a couple of conclusions. First, the desire for Iran and DPRK to proliferate is primarily based on defensive security factors. If either country was wanting to launch offensive strategic forces against selected targets, then they would be dissuaded by existing missile defense systems (the theater based systems in Japan/Eastern Europe are more effective than the national model discussed above). And while defensive security factors play a role, domestic politics do play a part here I think. Iran wants nuclear weapons as part of a grand strategy of becoming the leader of the Muslim world, and being the first Muslim country to acquire nuclear weapons surely boosts their credentials. In North Korea's case, the reappearance of their nuclear weapons program could be an attempt to leave Kim Jong-il's successor with a bargaining chip with the West.

Second, I don't think missile defense alters the equation with Russia or China. We can be reasonably assurred that deterrence works with both countries, and the presence of NMD or TMD doesn't change that. China has maintained a relatively restrained arsenal, while Russia's has been primarily focused on maintaining equivalence with the United States. In neither case does NMD or TMD play a determining factor in reducing or increasing strategic forces.

Modernizing our Strategic Forces

2009-05-31T17:21:00.000-07:00

The Reliable Replacement Warhead program, which was slashed in President Obama's FY2010 budget, has always been the subject of intense controversy. The RRW's supporters claim that it is a cornerstone of America's deterrent strategy, as deterrence only works if your opponent believes you are willing and able to retaliate. Detractors say that the RRW is like many other weapons programs; its sole purpose being maintaining jobs in Congressional districts. Additionally, they say that the RRW is likely to anger our allies and rogue nations.

I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. We have to ensure that our strategic forces are functional to serve the purposes they were built for, namely providing stable deterrence for the United States. On the other hand, our strategic forces are already incredibly capable, and are able to respond to a variety of threats across a full spectrum. Both the Secretaries of Energy and Defense have certified for the past 9 years that our forces meet acceptable standards.

We have to make sure our nuclear weapons are safe and reliable, but I'm not sure the RRW is effective at doing this. New facilities to process plutonium and uranium would be required, and that is not likely to be cheap. In addition, if we went about replacing warheads on 2,000 nuclear weapons, extensive testing would have to be done, and I don't think the President, Congress, or DOD is interested in doing that.

Our strategic forces and delivery systems are easily the most advanced in the world, and we should not look to modernize for the sake of modernizing. In addition, the use of PALS and other security measures ensure that these weapons don't detonate accidently and if a mishap does occur, then the effects are minimal. At some point in the future, we might need to upgrade to the W76 warhead, but right now, it doesn't make much sense.

Defense Finance Reform

2009-05-29T11:52:00.000-07:00

John Murtha (D-PA), one of the most powerful members in Congress due to his position as Chairman of the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, has caught flack in recent weeks for allegedly doling out no-bid contracts and contracts of questionable relevance to national security back to his district in Pennsylvania.

At his annual defense expo today, Murtha was very bullish on these allegations. He came out with this:

"So what's that got to do with me?" he said, when asked by a reporter about the investigation. "Wait a minute. What do you think, I oversee these companies? That's the Defense Department's job. That's not my job. You guys write these stories [but] you don't have a clue what this is all about."

No, you don't oversee the companies personally John, but you do appropriate them money. And when you are giving out money to companies without a proper bidding process and when these contracts have little to no value for US national security, then people have to ask questions.

Sadly, as this article points out, this practice of awarding dubious contracts is all too common at Congress. While some mavericks at least acknowledge the wasteful Pentagon spending like Gene Taylor (D-MS), many such as Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) simply want to funnel as much defense pork into their state even if the programs are wasteful and irrelevant (in Chambliss' case, the disastrous F-22).

The Weapons System Acquisition Reform Act of 2009 (summary here) is a decent first step, but there are still too many loopholes and easy ways out. In order to have timely and cost effective weapons systems, the Pentagon has to make giant changes and has to make a giant shift in thinking. I don't want to get into the whole "conventional vs. COIN" argument here, but there can be a healthy balance between the two schools of thought.

Europe Grows Up

2009-05-29T08:13:00.000-07:00

The rise of a new security/military force in Europe is bound to ask some serious questions about the relevance of NATO in the 21st Century. The European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), established in 1996 under control of the European Union, is Europe's force for a variety of stabilization and peacekeeping missions. And while there are issues of overlap right now, I think the ultimate goal is eventually getting rid of NATO and calling on Europe to deal with its own problems and provide for its own defense. ESDP puts us on a path to do that.

ESDP has undertaken stabilization and peacekeeping missions in places like Macedonia and Chad, exactly the kinds of conflicts I would like to see the United States avoid. In addition, the ESDP might actually get European nations to pay for their own defense, something they have not had to do in quite awhile. It's been well known that the major nations in Europe free ride on the US security guarantee, and hopefully the ESDP assumes more responsibility for the security and protection of Europe.

Turning the attention to NATO, its relevance died after the end of the Cold War and the destruction of the Soviet military establishment. After that point, it has engaged in missions that are specifically not within its original parameter, and it has been largely ineffective in fighting the wars it was designed for.

The 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia was the first major test case for the organization after the Cold War. But did the bombing violate NATO's own charter? Article 5 reads,

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Serbia did not attack any member of the alliance, even though we might detest and disagree with Milosevic's regime and antics (I do). But when a purely defensive organization turns into an offensive organization, that dramatically expands the responsibilities and the number of quarrels in which NATO could get involved.

You could argue that the invocation of Article 5 for the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was justified (I think it was), but the inefficiency of NATO in Afghanistan has been well documented for some time. Some countries refuse to participate in combat operations, and some even refuse to have their troops go out after dark.

Hopefully ESDP eventually phases out NATO and the US can stay out of peacekeeping operations in countries in which we have no security interests, and nation building missions. Doing this increases US security and decreases US taxpayer responsibility for our European allies.

Arms Race in South Asia

2009-05-28T10:10:00.000-07:00

One of the effects in seems of North Korea's nuclear test is supposedly an arms race beginning to take shape in South Asia between India and Pakistan. It's been reported that there are two simultaneous developments that the US should be worried about. The first is that Pakistan is developing more plutonium for its existing nuclear arsenal. The second is that India is developing cruise missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads, as well as working on a new SLBM based on the Agni ballistic missile.

Do these developments raise the plausibility of nuclear war in South Asia? Will a security dilemma ensue, where both states build up their "defenses" to the point where it results in an engagement, and perhaps a war? Again, the actors in the game might have changed, but the rules have not. There is no evidence to suggest that deterrence in South Asia will be any different than deterrence between the Soviet Union and the United States or deterrence between the Soviet Union and China. We even have historical precedences to look towards, namely the 1998 Kargil War, which occurred while both India and Pakistan were nuclear. That war did not elevate because both countries knew the risk of doing so.

What about nuclear terrorism? The worry over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal for many years has been whether the weapons would fall into the wrong hands. After all, Pakistan is not exactly the most stable place on the planet, with several coup d' etats and military dictatorships throughout its history. But this is one issue I think is of mutual importance to both India and Pakistan. A nuclear Taliban is hardly in India's best interests, so I think bi-national cooperation is possible in the future to ensure that does not happen. Also, Pakistan's arsenal is equipped with PALS, the nuclear safeguard system that was supplied by the United States after 9/11. This system would make it extremely difficult for terrorists to get ahold of and potentially use the nuclear weapons. It's safeguarded by a series of codes, and if the wrong code is entered, the weapon immediately shuts down and becomes inoperable. In addition, maintenance and operation of nuclear weapons takes many specialized people performing a multitude of tasks over a long period of time. Who are we to think that the Taliban potentially has these sorts of resources?

Nuclear accidents are also an issue of concern in South Asia, but the Soviet Union and the United States were able to go 40+ years each armed with 20,000 nuclear weapons without an accident, those chances diminish greately when talking about the few dozen weapons that India and Pakistan have.

We should not going into meltdown over an arms race in South Asia. A new Indian cruise missile and more Pakistani plutonium does not really alter the equation in a dramatic fashion. It's almost unthinkable that these new developments constitute an act of war.

The Forgotten War & the Myth of the Surge

2009-05-28T09:19:00.000-07:00

There are some troubling new developments in Iraq this week, now considered America's "forgotten war" because of the emphasis the Obama administration has placed on the conflict in Afghanistan. At this same time last year, Iraq was the main source of discussion and Afghanistan was the "forgotten war" so it's interesting to see the roles reversed considering how diastrous the Iraq War has been. But make no mistake, no matter what the neoconservative apologists might say, the situation in Iraq is still very combustible. The success of the so called "Surge" has been blown out of proportion by most of the people on the right, and some on the left.

This article at DoD Buzz summarizes the recent violent attacks in Baghdad in the month of April. While the attacks are not near the level they were pre-surge, the violence is still comparable to that going on in Afghanistan. Civilian casualties in Iraq are higher than in Afghanistan over the past few months. In addition, AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq) have increased the number of suicide bombing attacks over the course of April-May. It amazes me when people trump up the recent advancements made in Iraq in the face of stories like these.

But the problems in Baghdad do not tell the entire story. The Turkish military has bombed targets in Northern Iraq, more specifically, PKK rebels. While Turkey may be threatened by the PKK (especially in southeastern Turkey), I'm skeptical as to how effective these air strikes actually are. Ahmet Turk, a leader of a Kurdish political party said in the wake of the attacks, "As long as the deaths continue, none of our problems can be solved."He has a point. The aerial strikes are not likely to be a solution to the problem of Kurdish statehood in the short or long term. The principal of blowback applies here; taking out these Kurdish rebels is only likely to create more resentment and will likely cause more attacks in southeastern Turkey, exactly what the Turks are trying to avoid. Furthermore, how can Iraq expect to be a stable, functional democracy when its sovereignty is consistently violated by Turkish warplanes?

So the next time somebody trumps up the success of the surge, you would do well to remind them of three consequences. We have established Iranian strategic dominance in Iraq for the foreseeable future with the installation of the al-Maliki government, suicide bombings are on the rise and AQI has reemerged, and the Turkish incursions into northern Iraq represents problems of both state sovereignty and properly dealing with terrorist threats without inviting retaliation.

The Shield Makes the Sword Usable

2009-05-27T09:40:00.001-07:00

In response to North Korea's nuclear tests, Japan has been urged to totally revamp their missile defense system. MP Gen Nakatani, who is a former defense minister and the ruling head of the Liberal Democratic Party, has been a vocal supporter of the shift:

"We have no choice but to consider switching from the existing passive missile defence to an active missile defence, where launch targets on enemy ground can be directly attacked."

As of right now, Japan has two different layers to its missile defense program, which has been active since the Strategic Defense Initiative ("Star Wars") under Ronald Reagan. The Japanese currently operate the PAC-3 surface-to-air missile system for terminal phase defense and the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system for sea based mid-course phase defense. Both these systems have been extensively tested by the Japanese military, although the success rates vary widely depending on who you listen to. That being said, the systems have not been extensively tested by the Japanese in a combat scenario, so it's really anyone's guess as to how they would perform if a North Korean IRBM was headed towards Tokyo.

On a strategic level, what does all of this really mean? Japan's politicians are doing what one would expect, talking up a missile defense system in order to give a sense of security to the people. Going back to a previous post, would an enhanced (and effective) Japanese BMD system foretell the acquisition of nuclear weapons? Does the shield make the sword usable? And what to make of Nakatani's comments?

I think boost-phase missile defense is probably a bad idea for Japan to employ against North Korea. For one thing, that technology is highly risky and even war provoking on some level (especially against the belligerant DPRK government). The Boeing YAL-1 is one of the few developed boost phase missile defense systems, but that has been targeted by Sec. Gates for discontinued production. In addition, boost phase defense only leaves you about 2-3 minutes to take our your target, so planning has to be extremely accurate.

In the end, instead of building an "offensive" missile defense system, Japan should take the initiative with China, Russia, South Korea, and the United States to deal with the North Korea issue. The condemnation by Beijing and Moscow cannot be underlooked, this has huge strategic importance, because with their presence, North Korea has nobody else to turn to. Overreaction is a much worse strategy than underreaction in this instance.

The F-35 Disaster

2009-05-26T11:07:00.001-07:00

The GAO issued a report on the F-35 (or Joint Strike Fighter) last week, and the conclusions were all too familiar. Here's an excerpt: "JSF development will cost more and take longer to complete than reported to the Congress in April 2008, primarily because of contract cost overruns and extended time needed to complete flight testing."

Cost overruns and extended time for testing seem to be recurring themes at the Pentagon. In fact, the Pentagon is going to produce around 500 copies of the F-35 with only around 2% of testing completed. Engineers already found problems with the engine and avionics during the initial testing phase, so it can be logically assumed that by the time the rest of the testing is finished, a magnitude of problems will arise that will only shoot the cost up to astronomical levels. You can find similar construction mismanagement throughout the services; there is another report documenting the waste and inefficiency of Navy shipbuilding.

Winslow Wheeler at CDI does a good job running through the reasons that the F-35 is not likely to be a good replacement for our existing 4th Generation fighters. At $122 million per unit, you should be getting a great replacement for the F-16, A-10, F/A 18, and AV-8B, but this is not the case. It was designed to essentially be a "Swiss Army Knife" of the 5th Generation fighters, but it results in the F-35 being a jack of all trades, but a master of none. Of particular concern is its replacing of the A-10, which is a highly capable air-to-surface fighter that is highly specialized in bombing operations. According to Wheeler, the F-35 can only hold two 2,000lb bombs in its internal bay, far fewer than any other specialized bomber the USAF deploys. The F-35 is also too fast to conduct close ground support operations, rendering it pretty much useless in conflicts such as Afghanistan. This is troubling when you hear Gates say that the Pentagon is only going to buy weapons for the conflicts America is likely to face.

The stealth technology is also questionable. The air craft has to fly in certain postitions in order for it to be effective, and after the shootdown of a F-117 during the NATO campaign in Yugoslavia in 1999, it has been proven that stealth technology really isn't as impenetrable as we all like to think it is.

We have to get serious. We have not faced an enemy with a functional air force in decades, and that doesn't look like it's going to change anytime soon. We have a huge advantage in fighters compared to places like China, so it really would be wise to scrap the F-35 and let it go the way of the F-22. After that is finished, we should design an aircraft that can meet the demands of the USAF and Navy as well as be cost effective. That combination is possible I think.

The Decay of the Russian Military

2009-05-26T07:51:00.000-07:00

It's been well known since the end of the Cold War that the Russian military establishment has gone through some rough patches. Not only are their troops discontented, but their equipment is rapidly becoming obsolete, according to Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. The military campaign in Georgia and South Ossetia last year also revealed serious flaws in terms of equipment, coordination, and intelligence.

This is to be expected, I suppose. At the height of the Cold War in the 1980s, the Soviet Military boasted manpower of around 4.5 million soldiers. Now, that number is significantly lower at around 1.2 million. Granted, it's only Russia as opposed to the entire Soviet Union, and there has been significant population drops in Russia since the end of communism, but those numbers are striking.

In addition, since Russia still heavily relies on conscription, the quality of soldiers is lower because they end up being less motivated, less educated, and stay in the services for less time. If you needed any evidence that the quality is poor, this article talks about how Russia fired several of its senior military officers because they failed an aptitude test.

On the equipment side, the things Russia is buying are not even effective at fighting small militaries like Georgia's. The Russian air force lost 4 aircraft in the South Ossetian operation, all shot down by inferior Georgian anti-aircraft equipment. The operation also revealed that Russia has not changed its military strategy since the Soviet days. The victory was based on overwhelming manpower strength compared to Georgia, not precision guided weapons or any type of "Shock and Awe" campaign. Moscow's planning, which used to be reknowned for its complexity and detail, is now an impeding force because it is extremely unflexible, something that will impede your ability to adapt to modern warfare. Mobile dispersed warfare is now dominant, engagements between nations will not resemble the conflicts Russia built its military for.

Serdyukov and Medvedev have both supported the modernization of Russia's forces by 2011, but the fall of the price of oil and the global economic crisis (which has hit Russia especially hard) will make this goal fairly hard to achieve. Unless the leadership in Moscow dramatically shifts its thinking, then its armed forces will continue to rot for the next several years. We will know the extent of the damage by the time their defense budget for FY2011 is released, because the decay will have taken full effect by then.

A Test of Japan's Will Power

2009-05-25T19:08:00.000-07:00

In the wake of North Korea's nuclear test earlier today, which caused the UN Security Council to actually issue a condemnation letter, serious questions are bound to be asked of Japan. Specifically, in the wake of these new tests, will Japan be motivated to acquire nuclear weapons?

Several issues are in play here. The first is domestic. Since Japan is the only country to ever be on the receiving end of a nuclear explosion, one could understand why the population has a deep reluctance to proliferate. That being said, the country's leaders have maintained that if and when the US security guarantee can not be trusted, Japan will proliferate. A secret report of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a 1969 memo:

"For the time being, we will maintain the policy of not possessing nuclear
weapons. However, regardless of joining the NPT or not, we will keep the
economic and technical potential for the production of nuclear weapons."

Next, the security environment in East Asia is much different now than it was after World War II. There are several competing powers and several potential trouble spots. China and Taiwan have engaged in sabre-rattling with each other, there is the troubled issue of the Korean Peninsula, and several smaller potential conflicts, such as the dispute between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands. With this many potential problems, can Japan afford not to proliferate?

So we've established both that Japan has the economic/technical capacity for nuclear weapons and a sufficient threat environment. But does all that add up to certain proliferation? I'm not sure. The US security guarantee is probably enough to keep Japan from proliferating in the short term, but in the long term, Japan could certainly acquire WMD if the security threats in the region continue to fester. Prime Minister Aso has taken a hardline against North Korea, but whether that means WMD or more money for conventional forces is anybody's guess. One thing is for sure, even though the Japanese population has historical/cultural factors for not like nuclear weapons, if they are facing a grave danger, they will want protection.

For good discussions of this topic, see both Kenneth Waltz's "Structural Realism After the Cold War" and Japan's Nuclear Option: Security, Politics, and Policy in the 21st Century

North Korea's Nuclear Test

2009-05-25T06:47:00.000-07:00

North Korea has conducted a second nuclear test, as part of a response to the international criticism aimed at their supposed "satellite" launch in early April. The immediate question is, how should we deal with this? Is it a threat?

Well, I think that it's probably better that North Korea doesn't have nuclear weapons, but I just don't think that Kim Jong-il would openly risk destruction of the regime he and his father created. What we need to understand is, this nuclear test and the missile tests in April are all part of his scheme to legitimize his power to the North Korean population. If Kim Jong-il was seen as weak and not a "major player" on the international scene, his power would not be legitimized to his own people.

What about more sanctions? Sanctions seem to be the most predictable response, but do they actually work? The answer is no. Kim Jong-il doesn't care about the economic well being of his state, as long as the military is powerful. In fact, this is the basic strategy behind the Songun doctrine, which is a "military first" policy. Additionally, economic sanctions are not likely to have much of an impact on a closed economy like North Korea has. We can also look to how well sanctions have worked over the past 40+ years in Cuba...

Ignoring North Korea might be the best short term solution. The only realistic targets of a North Korean nuclear strike are South Korea and maybe Japan. Both countries have economies at least 40X as powerful, and have some of the most advanced weapons systems in the world, provided by the United States.

The credibility of North Korea's delivery systems must also be questioned. As we all know, their test in April of a long range ICBM failed. Making a bomb is one thing (and if reports are to be believed, their nuclear bombs are a fraction as lethal as the ones dropped on Hiroshima), but without functional delivery systems, having a nuclear weapon doesn't really mean that much.

The presence of theater missile defense systems in the region is also likely to act as a countermeasure to DPRKs nuclear ambitions. Since the only viable delivery system they are reported to have are SRBMs, then both Japan and South Korea would be able to succesfully counter the threat. As I talked about in a previous post, the technology in the theater level is much more promising than on the national level. Theater systems worked in the Gulf War against Iraqi Scuds, and 15+ years of additional technological advancement certainly couldn't have hurt.

Reducing Our Force Committments

2009-05-23T07:53:00.000-07:00

Vice Chief of Staff of the Army Peter Chiarelli told lawmakers this last week that increased demands on our troops and numerous committments around the world have created an Army that "remains out of balance."

This is hardly surprising. We have been over stretched for decades now, and the problems have only intensified since the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan started. The answer, however, is not more troops through increased recruiting, etc., but a radical reworking of what we expect them to do. We should withdraw all of our forces from outposts of the Cold War and World War II (Germany, Japan, South Korea) and from our recent ventures (Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia). We would have no problem defending the homeland with our current levels, and this is what we should be aiming for, not exercises in nation-building and liberal interventionism.

A New Strategy for the Navy?

2009-05-22T17:50:00.000-07:00

Today at the Hudson Institute there was a forum on the future of the Navy, and some very interesting points were raised.

Former Naval Secretary John Lehman had the most scathing criticism, saying, "Clearly, we have a problem, a deep endemic problem...Acquisition problems are the most important problem facing the Navy." It's easy to see where Lehman is coming from, as two of the more disastrous acquisition blunders in any of the services come straight from the Navy: the littoral combat ship and the DDG-1000. Both these ships have been plagued by high costs and inefficient assembly, often being built before the designs were actually finalized. On top of that, the actual relevance of these ships to modern naval warfare should also be questioned. Why do we need a specialized ship to operate in the littorals? Can't existing frigates and Burke-class destroyers do this? Is there a need for 50+ of these ships like Gates is requesting? If we want a ship to patrol the coast, isn't this a function the Coast Guard should be undertaking? The Coast Guard performed missions like this in Iraq and had good results. We have plenty of ships that can perform the tasks the LCS was supposedly built for.

Speaking of having plenty of ships, the 313 ship goal for the Navy is entirely unfeasible. At the same Hudson event, chief Naval analyst from the CBO Eric Labs predicts that to reach this goal and taking current shipbuilding costs into consideration, the Navy will likely need $800 billion over the next 30 years. On face value, it can be said that this is entirely too much money to devote to a service that has been scrambling to find relevance since the end of the Cold War. We are simply not likely to face direct naval threats from places like China for a very long time. And if we do, we will not need 313 ships. We can easily survive with 7-9 carriers instead of 11, and around 35-40 attack submarines. This is especially true when you consider there have been mixed signals that China is debating heavily whether it wants to build its first aircraft carrier.

Cutting Nuclear Weapons?

2009-05-22T12:04:00.000-07:00

The START treaty is due to expire soon, and the US is negotiating with Russia to renew the treaty. President Obama has already made it clear that he envisions a nuclear free world, and I suppose this is the first important step in that process.

It is thought that both sides would be willing to drop down to around 1,500 tactical nukes from the current levels in the mid 2,000's, but I don't see these negotiations as revolutionary or even a big step towards Obama's goals. The idea of a nuclear free world is more a pipe-dream than anything else. The technology is already out there, we simply cannot disinvent these things. Furthermore, countries will simply not want to give up their nukes. Why would they want to significantly weaken their own security? 1,500 nukes on both sides (and that's not counting warheads in storage, which are not part of the reductions) is still plenty enough to do significant damage.

I would tend to agree with the archdeacon of realism, Ken Waltz, who talks about the positive effects of nuclear weapons. Although his theory is extreme in some parts, the basic message prevails. These weapons make conventional wars less likely to occur, and they prevent limited wars from growing into full scale wars (see the Kargil War and the Soviet-Sino Conflict for examples of this practice).

Gates and Missile Defense

2009-05-22T11:48:00.000-07:00

Ever since the defense budget was released a few weeks ago, there has been much controversy about the cuts made to missile defense programs. Amid this criticism, Gates has defended the cuts, reassuring that he will boost spending to counter long range "threats" from rogue states like North Korea and Iran.

While it is true that both North Korea and Iran have recently tested long range missiles, the hysteria surrounding these developments is misplaced to me. Deterrence is still a relevant strategy in the 21st Century. In the absence of security, states will move to fill that void. The only way for Iran to be sure that the United States or Israel will not attack them is to acquire nuclear weapons. People talk about the supposed irrationality of regimes like the one in Iran, but why are we to think that the rules of the game are so much different now than during the tensions of the Cold War? States will act to ensure their survival. The surest way for the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad to lose power is to attack Israel or the southeastern cone of NATO.

On the prospects of a national missile defense shield, I think the technology on a restricted theater level is much more effective than any of the models being floated around for a national missile defense shield. In this instance, Gates is correct to restrict the funding. If a superpower was ever stupid enough to attack the United States with nuclear weapons, a national missile defense shield would do nothing. The superpower could simply launch dozens and dozens of "dummy" warheads to distract the missile shield, thereby letting a few functional warheads through to cause destruction.