Gates and Missile Defense

Ever since the defense budget was released a few weeks ago, there has been much controversy about the cuts made to missile defense programs. Amid this criticism, Gates has defended the cuts, reassuring that he will boost spending to counter long range "threats" from rogue states like North Korea and Iran.

While it is true that both North Korea and Iran have recently tested long range missiles, the hysteria surrounding these developments is misplaced to me. Deterrence is still a relevant strategy in the 21st Century. In the absence of security, states will move to fill that void. The only way for Iran to be sure that the United States or Israel will not attack them is to acquire nuclear weapons. People talk about the supposed irrationality of regimes like the one in Iran, but why are we to think that the rules of the game are so much different now than during the tensions of the Cold War? States will act to ensure their survival. The surest way for the Ayatollahs and Ahmadinejad to lose power is to attack Israel or the southeastern cone of NATO.

On the prospects of a national missile defense shield, I think the technology on a restricted theater level is much more effective than any of the models being floated around for a national missile defense shield. In this instance, Gates is correct to restrict the funding. If a superpower was ever stupid enough to attack the United States with nuclear weapons, a national missile defense shield would do nothing. The superpower could simply launch dozens and dozens of "dummy" warheads to distract the missile shield, thereby letting a few functional warheads through to cause destruction.