The Forgotten War & the Myth of the Surge

There are some troubling new developments in Iraq this week, now considered America's "forgotten war" because of the emphasis the Obama administration has placed on the conflict in Afghanistan. At this same time last year, Iraq was the main source of discussion and Afghanistan was the "forgotten war" so it's interesting to see the roles reversed considering how diastrous the Iraq War has been. But make no mistake, no matter what the neoconservative apologists might say, the situation in Iraq is still very combustible. The success of the so called "Surge" has been blown out of proportion by most of the people on the right, and some on the left.

This article at DoD Buzz summarizes the recent violent attacks in Baghdad in the month of April. While the attacks are not near the level they were pre-surge, the violence is still comparable to that going on in Afghanistan. Civilian casualties in Iraq are higher than in Afghanistan over the past few months. In addition, AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq) have increased the number of suicide bombing attacks over the course of April-May. It amazes me when people trump up the recent advancements made in Iraq in the face of stories like these.

But the problems in Baghdad do not tell the entire story. The Turkish military has bombed targets in Northern Iraq, more specifically, PKK rebels. While Turkey may be threatened by the PKK (especially in southeastern Turkey), I'm skeptical as to how effective these air strikes actually are. Ahmet Turk, a leader of a Kurdish political party said in the wake of the attacks, "As long as the deaths continue, none of our problems can be solved."He has a point. The aerial strikes are not likely to be a solution to the problem of Kurdish statehood in the short or long term. The principal of blowback applies here; taking out these Kurdish rebels is only likely to create more resentment and will likely cause more attacks in southeastern Turkey, exactly what the Turks are trying to avoid. Furthermore, how can Iraq expect to be a stable, functional democracy when its sovereignty is consistently violated by Turkish warplanes?

So the next time somebody trumps up the success of the surge, you would do well to remind them of three consequences. We have established Iranian strategic dominance in Iraq for the foreseeable future with the installation of the al-Maliki government, suicide bombings are on the rise and AQI has reemerged, and the Turkish incursions into northern Iraq represents problems of both state sovereignty and properly dealing with terrorist threats without inviting retaliation.