North Korea's Nuclear Test

North Korea has conducted a second nuclear test, as part of a response to the international criticism aimed at their supposed "satellite" launch in early April. The immediate question is, how should we deal with this? Is it a threat?

Well, I think that it's probably better that North Korea doesn't have nuclear weapons, but I just don't think that Kim Jong-il would openly risk destruction of the regime he and his father created. What we need to understand is, this nuclear test and the missile tests in April are all part of his scheme to legitimize his power to the North Korean population. If Kim Jong-il was seen as weak and not a "major player" on the international scene, his power would not be legitimized to his own people.

What about more sanctions? Sanctions seem to be the most predictable response, but do they actually work? The answer is no. Kim Jong-il doesn't care about the economic well being of his state, as long as the military is powerful. In fact, this is the basic strategy behind the Songun doctrine, which is a "military first" policy. Additionally, economic sanctions are not likely to have much of an impact on a closed economy like North Korea has. We can also look to how well sanctions have worked over the past 40+ years in Cuba...

Ignoring North Korea might be the best short term solution. The only realistic targets of a North Korean nuclear strike are South Korea and maybe Japan. Both countries have economies at least 40X as powerful, and have some of the most advanced weapons systems in the world, provided by the United States.

The credibility of North Korea's delivery systems must also be questioned. As we all know, their test in April of a long range ICBM failed. Making a bomb is one thing (and if reports are to be believed, their nuclear bombs are a fraction as lethal as the ones dropped on Hiroshima), but without functional delivery systems, having a nuclear weapon doesn't really mean that much.

The presence of theater missile defense systems in the region is also likely to act as a countermeasure to DPRKs nuclear ambitions. Since the only viable delivery system they are reported to have are SRBMs, then both Japan and South Korea would be able to succesfully counter the threat. As I talked about in a previous post, the technology in the theater level is much more promising than on the national level. Theater systems worked in the Gulf War against Iraqi Scuds, and 15+ years of additional technological advancement certainly couldn't have hurt.