Saturday, June 6, 2009

Iran, Israel, Nuclear Weapons, and Air Strikes

A new report was issued this week that suggests that Iran has enough centrifuges to manufacture nuclear weapons in a few month's time. But the report also noted that the inspectors had found no evidence that Iran was shifting the fuel in order to make weapons. These events don't exactly shift the equation, and they do not tell us anything we didn't already know. Iran is allowed to have nuclear power as it is a signatory of the NPT. And if they were to ever weaponize, I don't think anybody would be shocked, but more importantly, we should not overreact. Any sort of unilateral US or Israeli air strike on Natanz would be incredibly counterproductive and is exactly the kind of operation Obama and Netanyahu should avoid.

The NY Times article linked also talks about how George W. Bush refused technological support for the Israelis in the event of a unilateral air strike on Iran. If true, this is one of the few things Bush actually did right during his presidency. President Obama has to make it clear to the Israelis that the United States will not tolerate unilateral action against Iran.

What many fail to realize is that an air strike on Iran is not likely to have positive results. Iran probably wants nuclear weapons for their own security. In international politics, states are motivated by their own survival and their leaders are rational and also focused on survival. Iran's military is not able to project dominance in the Middle East region, and I don't really see any signs that they are militarizing for a strike on Israel or U.S. interests. An aggresive Israeli air strike against Iran would likely motivate not only Iran, but the wider Muslim world. Iran would find allies in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan and would probably be able to counterbalance against Israel. In addition, the presence of Hamas and other militants inside Palestinian territory would also work against Israel. Having to fight a multifront conflict would be disastrous for Israel. The combination of these factors would likely dwarf the conflicts in 1967 or 1973.

The surest way for Israel to ensure its survival is to keep a watchful eye on Iran, but not to do anything overly aggressive. Israel has every right to preserve its security, but air strikes are just likely to anger the entire region, and potentially drag the United States either directly into a conflict, or in some kind of offshore balancing (sort of like the Lend/Lease acts with the UK around WWII).

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