Obama Goes to Russia

As President Obama heads to Russia this week to discuss a variety of issues, the stakes couldn't be higher. Nuclear disarmament will be high on the list, as will other pressing issues, such as supply routes to Afghanistan, Georgia (where tensions are running high), and the proposed missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The fact that Russia has allowed the US to fly in its territory to deliver supplies to Afghanistan is a significant olive branch. This was a contentious issue between the two countries, and the fact that Russia has essentially conceded shows a willingness to perhaps compromise in other areas. Perhaps Russia is not as worried about the US projecting power in the former stomping grounds? Or perhaps they simply don't have the influence and resources they once had, so they had no choice but to concede.

The discussions of nuclear arms reductions have several different angles to look at; the missile shield in Eastern Europe and the actual size of the proposed stockpiles. I think the Russians have sufficient reason to be threatened and upset at the proposed missile defense shield in Europe. Like I argued a while back, the best way to reach a compromise is to do something similar to what MIT's Ted Postol is proposing, which is to use specialized UAVs (which already exist) to neutralize the "threat" from Iran and North Korea. The missile technology of these rogue states is limited, and they can only launch from a handful of sites. This system poses no threat to Russia, who has far more advanced missile technology and an abundance of sites to launch from.

With regards to the potential stockpile levels, I think this is a very superficial discussion. Reducing to 1,700 to 2,200 warheads is important politically, but it really does nothing strategically. Showing the world a willingness to reduce arms is important if we're going to continue to preach the benefits of arms control, but in reality, the difference between 5,000 and 2,000 warheads is minimal. That being said, it's important for Medvedev and Obama to update START, as this is an issue the world seems to be united behind, and we really can't afford to throw away opportunities like this.

Issues like human rights/democracy and the situation in Georgia will also be discussed, but I think Obama should really minimize these issues. We're left open to charges of hypocrisy if we emphasize the lack of human rights/democracy in Russia, but continue to keep quiet over Iran (which I think is the correct course of action). With Georgia, Obama and McCain rushing to Saakashvili's side during the South Ossetian War last year was a grave miscalculation, and so was all of the talk about expanding NATO to include Georgia. In reality, I think it was mixed US signals that caused Saakashvili to make the decision to attempt to retake South Ossetia in the first place. The future of South Ossetia and Saakashvili really has no significance to US security interests, so the less it's talked about, the better I say.

All in all, this next week will be vital to the Obama administration on numerous fronts, and it's an opportunity to make serious headway after Russian-US relations were fractured under Bush.