Trouble In Iraq?

Today was the deadliest single day in Iraq since US forces withdrew from major cities. A double suicide bombing in northern Iraq killed 34, while there were also attacks both Sunni and Shi'a parts of Baghdad. Can we expect a prolonged campaign of violence?

Even though US forces withdrew from cities, I think it was naive to assume that everything would be rosy and peaceful in Iraq. Yes, the Iraqi people celebrated the withdrawal, but there was always going to be a de-stabilizing factor- the various insurgent groups. That being said, I think the United States made the right decision to leave. These various insurgent groups will fail to mobilize enough support for the long haul. If a mutual understanding between the Kurds, Sunnis, and Shi'a can be reached (and it doesn't have to be anything monumental or groundbreaking), then insurgents will lose the will to fight. If the al-Maliki government remains stable, then I think the pieces will fall into place.

Also, I think it was a mistake to disband the regional security arrangements utilized famously in Anbar province. These groups can act as sufficient checks against the government's security forces, where there is already suspicion that they may have been penetrated by insurgents.

It's important to let the Iraqi government and military work out the kinks and for the US military not to recommit, no matter how bad the violence gets. I have the feeling violence will perhaps intensify for the next few weeks, but will gradually die down.