Friday, June 12, 2009

Bunker Busters & North Korea

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency issued a report which outlined its goals for creating much more powerful so called "bunker buster" nukes- 5X more powerful by the end of 2009 and 10X more powerful in 2013. The premise of bunker busters is to have the ability to neutralize WMD silos under ground. This issue has resurfaced since North Korea's nuclear test last month. Being able to take out DPRK's nukes without having to send boots on the ground would obviously be appealing to many on the right and the left.

However, would the United States actually authorize such a move? I think it would be extremely risky to do such a thing. Intelligence in North Korea isn't exactly reliable, so how could the United States be confident in destroying all the nuclear installations? If the US were to authorize a bunker busting strike, and is moderately successful, then North Korea would be backed into a corner, and desperate to cling to power, might launch retaliatory strikes against Seoul.

I'm sure it could be argued that bunker busters are inherently offensive rather than defensive weapon systems, as I think their existence circumvents traditional deterrence methods. If you know your opponent has something to neutralize your primary bargaining chip, then the rules of the game can dramatically shift. In the context of North Korea, I don't think the US would risk such a move, at least not know. The internal situation in North Korea is very combustible, if Kim Jong-il (who's questionable medical status has reemerged) were to die, and a struggle for power were to ensue. I'm not saying that's likely or possible, but it's something that needs to be acknowledged. Bunker buster strikes at this point would do much more harm than good.

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