US & Russian Nuclear Stockpiles

Dmitriy Medvedev has given his clearest indication yet that Russia is willing to significantly reduce its strategic force size ahead of the expected START negotiations. Under the framework of the negotiations, Russia said it would eventually reduce its stockpile to around 1,500 warheads by 2012 or so.

Should the United States reduce its strategic force stockpile? I think there are a couple of important issues to address. I can't help but think that any sort of reworking START is blinded by Cold War era thinking. Russian and American stockpiles have a sort of symbiotic relationship; there's an assumption that both countries strategic forces have to be equal in size and scope. 20 years after the Cold War, is this still a rational approach to arms control? Why does Russia still need to maintain parity with the US arsenal? I suppose the rational answer is say Russia feels like it has to maintain the balance of power in Eurasia, but even saying that is Cold War minded.

The next issue is what the proper number of delivery systems should be. There have been talks of eventually outlawing the use of MIRV ICBMs, and moving to single warhead missiles. I'm not sure how relevant this approach is; it seems more symbolic more than anything. Indeed, the reason Obama and Medvedev are probably proposing this is because they know that the diplomatic non-proliferation leverage from moving to single warhead missiles will be massive, and they won't really be giving up any firepower. This all goes back to the Waltz argument that there's not much more you can do with 2,000 warheads that you can't do with 250-300 or so warheads. There are warheads (like the B83)in the US arsenal that have a potential payload of 1.2 megatons. This pales in comparison to the 15 or so kiloton bomb that was detonated in Hiroshima in 1945 and dwarfs the 1.5 to 3 kiloton bomb the North Koreans supposedly detonated a month ago.

I think these talks are a fundamentally good thing for the future of US-Russian relations. I still think it makes sense for both countries to have a minimal deterrent, but in the current threat environment, it's now possible for both countries to work towards stockpile reductions. Hopefully these negotiations go well, as the United States desperately needs Russian support on a host of issues, from ending the war in Afghanistan to dealing with regional nuisances like Iran.