The Logic of CTBT

Last week, Secretary General of the UN Ban ki-Moon tried to persuade the general assembly to adopt the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The treaty was originally signed in 1996, but it does not come into force until 44 nations sign and ratify it, and there have been some notable absentees from the list, including the United States, Israel, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran.

On a strategic level, would adopting CTBT make sense for the United States? Would it make sense for the other nuclear nations? I think alot depends on how the international community is actually going to enforce this. Persuasion is a very difficult thing to achieve in international politics, and persuading states to not test nuclear weapons might be a difficult sell. This is especially true when you talk about North Korea and Iran, who are more than likely the real targets of CTBT. But we already know that North Korea and Iran are willing to violate resolutions, as there is not much to dissuade them from proceeding with their programs. Sanctions don't work on an already isolated North Korea, and military action would be a huge miscalculation. So I think the effect of CTBT on rogue states is limited at best until the international community can find suitable means to enforce it.

I do think ratifying CTBT makes sense for the United States. After all, the United States has not conducted nuclear tests since 1992. It's often said that in order to have effective deterrence, you have to be willing and able to use your weapons. If you have functional weapons but your opponent knows you won't use them, deterrence fails. Likewise, if you are willing to use your weapons but they do not work, deterrence fails. But every Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy for the past decade or so has stated that our strategic forces are operable and capable and will remain that way for a long time. In addition, the Stockpile Stewardship program (comprehensive report here) is the right way to proceed with ensuring weapons capability without resorting to testing. It would be a tad hypocritical for the United States to be yelling at Kim Jong-il for testing nuclear weapons and then subsequently carrying out tests of our own. This is one of the issues that we can find common ground with the rest of the world, as most of the world wants such a treaty in play. After the numerous foreign policy disasters by the Bush Administration, finding this common ground is absolutely essential.