The Future of Iraq

As stipulated by the Status of Forces Agreement, US forces have started to withdrawal from major cities within Iraq. US forces will still be in the country, but today certainly represents a new day for the Iraqi people. While there was some violence in Kirkuk, pulling the troops out of Iraq is still the correct decision.

But while the withdrawal is an important event, the future of Iraq is clouded with many questions. One of the effects of the "surge" was establishing Iranian strategic dominance in Iraq for the next 10-15 years with Prime Minister al-Maliki. The US withdrawal immediately makes Iraq Iran's problem. With all of Iran's internal issues at the moment, this could present an insurmountable challenge for the ruling theocracy in Tehran. I'm not sure if this will result in a shifting of the balance of power in the Middle East, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on.

The prospects of long term stability in Iraq is also a serious question mark at this point in time. Progress has been made to some extent, but one of the side effects of the occupation was rekindling the ethnic rivalries between Sunni, Shia, and the Kurds. We're seeing a similar situation emerge now in Bosnia & Herzegovina, where the ethnic rivalries between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks are threatening to tear the country apart once again. This is happening even in the relative stability of Europe. Middle Eastern politics are famous for their combustibility, so the relationships between the ethnic groups will be vital for the future of Iraq.

Where does the United States go from here? I think it will make the US more hesitant to engage in prolonged occupations in the future. Nobody is interested in repeating the problems experienced in Iraq, and future administrations will no doubt notice the negative shift in public opinion which has effectively ruined the Republican party in the short term. I also think the US will devote more time and resources to learning effective post conflict stability operations. The US lost the will of the Iraqi people when it had no plan after the initial invasion and removal of Saddam.

But this is a seismic event in the history of Iraq, and it's going to be worth watching our the events in Iran effect the transition in Iraq.