Russia, the CSTO, and War Games

Probably in response to NATO exercises in Georgia, the Russian military, alongside many of its closest allies in the region (Kazakhstan, Belarus, etc.) will conduct extensive war games under the banner of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). The logic here seems fairly simple. Russia is trying to flex its collective muscle by creating an organization similar to NATO. And much like the United States does within NATO, Russia will dominate over the other members, who are probably just looking to Moscow for security.

Does a functional CSTO pose any sort of threat to Europe or NATO? The answer is no. As I've pointed out in a previous post, the Russian military has been slowly decaying since the end of the Cold War, and due to the harsh economic conditions in Russia, their defense spending will probably decline significantly over the next few years. And while I would be supportive of NATO ceasing to exist, I don't think that would encourage or bait the Russians to do anything stupid. They know what their capabilities are, are nobody looking at them really believes they have any real capabilities.

Russia's power projection does not extend past their previous sphere of influence during the days of the Soviet Union, so I don't really see the worry about them banding together with a few insignificant former Soviet republics and running war games. We all know Russia has tried to meddle in the affairs of the various republics, but it's usually a desperate attempt to reassert their dominance.

In addition, Russia wants to reset relations with the United States and make sure they can sell their oil to the rest of Europe. Starting another war severely damages those objectives.