Strategic Changes at the Pentagon?

It's been widely reported that the next QDR (which drives military spending, force readiness, and training), will reflect a shift in strategic thinking at DoD. The common assumption is that the military will have to simultaneously prepare for conventional, set piece battles with nation states like China and counterinsurgency operations.

This new idea of "hybrid warfare" I think presents the United States with a multitude of problems. Part of this stipulates that the military has to prepare to fight more than two wars at a time. One lesson I would hope we have learned over the last 6-7 years is the strategic blunder of fighting multiple wars at once. The inability to focus on one conflict is likely to encourage missteps in planning and execution. This is typified in the oft-cited example of abandoning the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban to go to war against Iraq.

We also have to acknowledge that the concept of "hybrid warfare" also is likely to continually drive up defense spending for the foreseeable future. If we view every failed state, rogue state, and emerging power as a threat, then we are not likely to cut our bloated defense budget. The structure of the international system will ensure that conflicts continually emerge, and military planners will want to make sure that the United States is prepared to deal with every possible challenge. This almost sounds like the classic "Dick Cheney Doctrine" where if there's a 1% chance that a terrorist attack will occur, then we have to treat it as if it's a certainty. Of course there's a chance that China could eventually threaten the United States. But it's not likely, even for the next several decades.

I also thought this part of the article was interesting:

But powerful constituencies in the military and in Congress continue to
argue that the next war will not look like Iraq or Afghanistan, and they say
the military is focusing too much on counter-insurgency and losing its ability to
defeat a traditional nation-state.

To a certain extent, I think this is correct. I don't believe that the next conflict will resemble Iraq. Planners and strategists will not want to repeat it. Aside from the usual neoconservative apologists who continue to espouse the greatness of the Iraq War, I don't think the common politician or citizen is really interested in occupying another Muslim country. But I'm not so sure that the next conflict will resemble this grand battle against another power either. Future conflicts I think will be predominately civil wars, border skirmishes, and asymmetrical surgical strikes.

Since the end of the Cold War, we've seen hosts of civil wars that have lured the great powers into entering (the Yugoslav wars of the early 90's, the Somali Civil War) and ones that have been shunned by the international community (i.e. Darfur, Rwanda). I think this pattern will continue. Some civil wars will entice the United States into entering, and some will repel intervention.

Border skirmishes are likely to be the most dangerous form of future warfare, though I don't think the United States needs to necessarily be involved in these types of conflicts. Remember, the geostrategic position of the United States is extremely favorable. I would consider the Israel-Lebanon War in 2006 and the South Ossetia War in 2008 as border skirmishes that escalated very rapidly. The two wars differ in context, though not by much. The Pentagon has looked towards the Israel-Lebanon War as a model for future conflict, but I think this is misguided. The one border problem the United States has is all the drug violence coming from Mexico, but aside from a few shootouts and isolated kidnappings, I think this is more of a problem the police, and to a limited extent DHS should be dealing with rather than the military.

Asymmetrical surgical strikes, like what we see happening in Northern Iraq and during the NATO strike on Kosovo, are also likely to continue in the future. US aerial dominance will encourage this type of behavior, and I wouldn't be surprised if this type of action continues and possibly grows in Pakistan. It's also going to take some time for enemy air defenses to be able to successfully counter US stealth technology on a consistent basis, so not much will deter such action in the future.

So, what does all this mean for the United States? Luckily, if policymakers and politicians are smart (and this is assuming an awful lot), we don't necessarily have to be involved. Civil Wars and failed states are not likely to threaten our national security no matter what fear mongers might tell you. And while border skirmishes can escalate into full scale wars, the United States is in a benign threat environment, surrounded by allies and weak militaries. And politicians might be willing to pull the plug on UAV missions in Pakistan if public opinion continues to nosedive. In general, the United States does have potential threats and adversaries, but fortifying itself in places around the world is not likely to make us any safer.