A Note on Iran

After weeks of heated campaigning in Iran between incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his challenger Hossein Mousavi, Ahmadinejad won reelection by an apparent 63%. This is not the result that the United States wanted, for obvious reasons, but I'm hesitant to think that Mousavi would have been monumentally better than Ahmadinejad. For one thing, for the issues the United States really cares about, i.e. Iran's nuclear program, getting help on regional problems like Iraq and Afghanistan, a change in president would likely have not shifted policy all that much. Iran's nuclear program has alot of political capital invested in it, and that would have been incredibly hard to reverse, even if Mousavi had won the election.

Second, the Ayatollah is still in power. Nothing has changed at the top. The president of Iran has no real power when it comes to any foreign policy issues, everything must be approved the Ayatollah. Ahmadinejad might have been given a longer leash when it comes to things like domestic policy and social issues, but the Ayatollahs get the final word on Iran's relations with the rest of the world.

That being said, I still think that this election has some significance in the grand scheme of things, and I don't think it's akin to the kind of "rubber stamp" elections held in places like Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Belarus, even if Ahmadinejad's reelection had some irregularities. Over the last few weeks, the political culture of Iran has grown to heights rarely seen in the Middle East. Besides having record turnout, televised debates were shown for the first time. These factors are likely to have at least a marginal positive impact in the future.

What does this mean for the United States? President Obama and the people at the State Department know they are going to have to deal with Ahmadinejad for another four years. As I've stated before, I don't believe Iran's nuclear program poses the threat that many people would have you believe, and from a security perspective, I can understand why they would want nuclear weapons. That being said, they are still a few years away from producing an active bomb, and they are legally able to produce nuclear power for peaceful purposes. The best way for the US to get what it wants is to continue on in the diplomatic route. The "bigger carrots and bigger sticks" approach of the Bush administration is certain to push the two countries further apart, and we need Iran's help on the critical regional problems I mentioned earlier.